Hurricane Igor Still A Bermuda Threat

Hurricane Igor Advisory Number 31
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al112010
500 Pm Ast Wed Sep 15 2010

...Large And Powerful Igor Maintaining Its Strength...

Summary Of 500 Pm Ast...2100 Utc...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...20.1n 55.6w
About 505 Mi...815 Km Ene Of The Northern Leeward Islands
About 1015 Mi...1635 Km Se Of Bermuda
Maximum Sustained Winds...135 Mph...215 Km/Hr
Present Movement...Wnw Or 295 Degrees At 8 Mph...13 Km/Hr
Minimum Central Pressure...942 Mb...27.82 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 500 Pm Ast...2100 Utc...The Center Of Hurricane Igor Was Located
Near Latitude 20.1 North...Longitude 55.6 West. Igor Is Moving
Toward The West-Northwest Near 8 Mph...13 Km/Hr. A General Motion
Toward The West-Northwest With Some Increase In Forward Speed Is
Expected Over The Next Couple Of Days.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 135 Mph...215 Km/Hr...With Higher
Gusts. Igor Is A Category Four Hurricane On The Saffir-Simpson
Scale. Some Fluctuations In Strength Are Possible During The Next
Day Or Two...But Igor Is Expected To Remain A Large And Dangerous
Hurricane.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 45 Miles...75 Km...From
The Center...And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To
240 Miles...390 Km.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 942 Mb...27.82 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Surf...Large Swells Generated By Igor Will Affect The Leeward
Islands...Puerto Rico And The Virgin Islands Today And Thursday.
The Swells Are Expected To Reach Portions Of The Bahamas Tonight
And Thursday And Continue Through The Weekend. Swells Associated With Igor Will Also Reach The East Coast Of The United States Thursday And Friday And Continue Over The Weekend. These Swells Are Likely To Cause Life-Threatening Surf And Rip Current Conditions.

Please Consult Products From Your Local Weather Office For
Additional Information.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Complete Advisory...1100 Pm Ast.

Forecaster Kimberlain

Hurricane Igor Discussion Number 31
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al112010
500 Pm Ast Wed Sep 15 2010

Infrared Satellite Pictures Indicate That Igor Is Maintaining Its
Convective Organization...With Inner Core Convection More Vigorous
Than Earlier. However...Visible Satellite Images Suggest That The
Eyewall Replacement Cycle Igor Is Experiencing Is Still Occurring.
A Distinct But Partial Inner Eyewall Is Evident And An Outer
Eyewall Now At 30-40 Nm Radius Seems To Be Gradually Contracting.
Subjective Dvorak Classifications Are At 5.5 And 6.0 From Sab And
Tafb...Respectively...While The Latest 3-Hourly Averaged Adt Value
Is Close To 6.0. These Estimates Are The Basis For Keeping The
Initial Intensity At 115 Kt For This Advisory. There Are No Obvious
Large-Scale Factors That Could Cause A Significant Weakening Of
Igor During The Next 2-3 Days. Any Changes In Intensity During This
Time Are Most Likely To Be Related To Inner Core Dynamics For Which
Predictability Is Low. In 3-4 Days...Global Dynamical Models
Continue To Show An Increase In Southerly Shear...And Igor Should
Reach Marginal Sea Surface Temperatures Toward The End Of The
Period. The Statistical-Dynamical Guidance Responds To These
Factors By Showing A Gradual Weakening Beyond 72 Hours. The
Official Nhc Intensity Is Basically Unchanged...With The Forecast
Still Indicating Some Potential For Re-Intensification In The Short
Term After The Current Eyewall Replacement Cycle Ends.

There Has Been Little Change To The Motion...And The Latest Estimate
Is 295/07. Igor Is Moving Around The Southwest Periphery Of The
Subtropical Ridge Over The Eastern Atlantic And Is Gradually
Entering A Pronounced Weakness In The Western Atlantic. This
Synoptic Pattern Should Steer Igor On A Northwestward And Then
North-Northwestward Course During The Next 2-3 Days. During This
Time...Several Shortwave Troughs Moving Through The Weakness In The Western Atlantic Should Have Little Effect On Igor. However...
Dynamical Models Are In Generally Good Agreement That A Vigorous
Shortwave Trough Moving Through The Northeastern States/Canadian
Maritimes In About 4-5 Days Should Begin To Induce Recurvature. The
Gfs/Hwrf/Gfdl Have Been Indicating A More Robust Shortwave Feature
And A Sharper Recurvature During The Past Several Runs. On The
Other Hand...The Ukmet...Ecmwf...And The Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Have Had A Weaker And More Progressive Shortwave That Could Delay Recurvature And Allow For A More Westward Track. The Official Nhc Track Forecast Remains About The Same As Before And Is Very Near The Multi-Model Consensus...Continuing To Show Igor Passing Close To Bermuda In About 4 Days.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 15/2100z 20.1n 55.6w 115 Kt
12hr Vt 16/0600z 20.6n 56.7w 110 Kt
24hr Vt 16/1800z 21.4n 58.2w 115 Kt
36hr Vt 17/0600z 22.4n 59.8w 120 Kt
48hr Vt 17/1800z 23.5n 61.5w 120 Kt
72hr Vt 18/1800z 26.5n 64.0w 105 Kt
96hr Vt 19/1800z 31.0n 65.0w 95 Kt
120hr Vt 20/1800z 36.0n 61.5w 80 Kt

Forecaster Kimberlain


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