Tropical Storm Karl In SW Gulf Thursday

Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 5
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al132010
400 Pm Cdt Wed Sep 15 2010

...Karl Weakening And Moving West-Northwestward Across The Yucatan Peninsula...

Summary Of 400 Pm Cdt...2100 Utc...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...19.0n 89.4w
About 80 Mi...130 Km Wnw Of Chetumal Mexico
About 95 Mi...155 Km Se Of Campeche Mexico
Maximum Sustained Winds...45 Mph...75 Km/Hr
Present Movement...Wnw Or 285 Degrees At 15 Mph...24 Km/Hr
Minimum Central Pressure...997 Mb...29.44 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

The Government Of Mexico Has Discontinued The Tropical Storm Warning For The East Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula.

The Government Of Belize Has Discontinued The Tropical Storm Watch
For The Coast Of Northern Belize.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For...
* The West Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula From Ciudad Del Carmen
Northward To Celestun

A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Possible Within The Watch Area...In This Case Within 24 Hours.

A Hurricane Watch May Be Required For Portions Of The Coast Of
Mainland Mexico Tonight. Interests In This Area Should Monitor The
Progress Of Karl.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area Outside...Please Monitor
Products Issued By Your National Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 400 Pm Cdt...2100 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Karl Was
Located Inland Over The Yucatan Peninsula Near Latitude 19.0
North...Longitude 89.4 West. Karl Is Moving Toward The
West-Northwest Near 15 Mph...24 Km/Hr...And This General Motion Is
Expected To Continue With A Gradual Decrease In Forward Speed
During The Next Couple Of Days. On The Forecast Track...The Center
Of Karl Will Emerge Into The Bay Of Campeche Tonight Or Early
Thursday...And Then Move Across The Bay Of Campeche And The
Southwestern Gulf Of Mexico Thursday And Thursday Night.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 45 Mph...75 Km/Hr... With Higher Gusts. Karl Should Continue To Weaken Tonight As The Center Crosses The Yucatan Peninsula. Re-Intensification Is
Expected On Thursday After The Center Emerges Into The Bay Of
Campeche...And Karl Could Become A Hurricane By Friday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 40 Miles...65 Km
From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 997 Mb...29.44 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Will Continue To Spread Across The
Southern And Central Yucatan Peninsula This Evening.

Storm Surge...Storm Surge Flooding...And The Accompanying Damaging
Waves...Along The East Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula Should Subside This Evening As The Center Of Karl Moves Farther Inland.

Rainfall...Karl Is Expected To Produce Total Rain Accumulations Of
3 To 5 Inches Over The Yucatan Peninsula...Belize...And Northern
Guatemala...With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 8 Inches. These Rains
Could Cause Life-Threatening Flash Floods And Mud Slides.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Intermediate Advisory...700 Pm Cdt.
Next Complete Advisory...1000 Pm Cdt.

Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 5
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al132010
400 Pm Cdt Wed Sep 15 2010

Karl Is Slowly Weakening As The Center Crosses The Yucatan
Peninsula. Satellite Imagery And Data From The Belize City Radar
Indicate The Cyclone Continues To Produce Strong Convection...But
This Is Currently Confined To The Southwestern Quadrant. There Are
No Observation Available Near The Core...And Thus The Initial
Intensity Of 40 Kt Is Somewhat Uncertain.

The Initial Motion Is Now 285/13. The Cyclone Remains On The South
Side Of A Low/Mid-Level Ridge Centered Over The Northern Gulf
Coast...And This Feature Should Steer The Cyclone Generally
West-Northwestward Or Westward Across The Southwestern Gulf Of
Mexico Into Mainland Mexico. There Remains Some Spread In The
Guidance...With The Hwrf Indicating A More Northward Motion On The
Right Side Of The Guidance Envelope And The Gfdn A More Westward
Motion On The Left. Several Of The Other Dynamical Models Now
Forecast Karl To Slow Its Forward Motion Before Reaching The Coast
Of Mainland Mexico...And Also Forecast A Turn To South Of West
Motion Near Or Just After Landfall. The New Forecast Track
Reflects Both Of These Possibilities...With The New Track Being
Similar To...But A Little Slower Than...The Previous Track After
36 Hr.

Karl Is Forecast To Weaken To A Tropical Depression By The Time It
Reaches The West Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula In About 12 Hr.
Once The Center Reaches Water...The Combination Of Warm Sea Surface Temperatures And Light Vertical Wind Shear Should Allow
Re-Intensification As Forecast By All Guidance. It Should Be Noted
That The Hwrf...While Forecasting Strengthening...Has Consistently
Kept Karl At Less Than Hurricane Strength. Given The Seemingly
Favorable Environment...The Intensity Forecast Calls For Karl To
Reach Hurricane Strength Over The Gulf Of Mexico In Agreement With
The Ships And Lgem Models. The Forecast Shows A Peak Intensity Of
70 Kt...But Karl Could Become Stronger Than That Between The 48 And
72 Hr Forecast Points.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 15/2100z 19.0n 89.4w 40 Kt...Inland
12hr Vt 16/0600z 19.6n 90.9w 30 Kt...Over Water
24hr Vt 16/1800z 20.5n 92.7w 35 Kt
36hr Vt 17/0600z 21.1n 94.4w 50 Kt
48hr Vt 17/1800z 21.3n 95.7w 65 Kt
72hr Vt 18/1800z 21.5n 98.5w 70 Kt...Inland
96hr Vt 19/1800z 21.0n 101.5w 25 Kt...Inland
120hr Vt 20/1800z...Dissipated

Forecaster Beven


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