Severe T-storm US Outlook Sep 17 - Sep 22

Day 3 Convective Outlook
Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
0213 Am Cdt Wed Sep 15 2010

Valid 171200z - 181200z

...Synopsis...
While Fast/Largely Wly Flow Aloft Will Prevail Across The Nrn Half
Of The Conus This Period...A Strong Upper Low Moving Across The
Canadian Prairie Will Be Accompanied By A Large Surface Storm
System. The Trailing Cold Front Is Forecast To Move Steadily Ewd
Across The Upper Great Lakes Region...But More Slowly Sewd Into The Central Conus. The Sewd-Moving Portion Of This Front May Serve As A Focus For Limited Severe Potential.

...Mid Mo Valley Region...
Some Nwd Return Of Moisture Is Expected Into The Mid Mo
Valley...Ahead Of The Cold Front Shifting Slowly Sewd Across This
Area. This Combined With Afternoon Heating Will Support Modest
Destabilization...And The Subsequent Development Of Scattered
Showers And Thunderstorms. With The Mid Mo Valley Region Not Only Near The Nrn Fringe Of Greater Moisture Return But Likewise Near The Srn Extent Of Stronger Flow Field Aloft...The Resulting Kinematic And Thermodynamic Environment Appears Sufficient To Support The Introduction Of A Low-Probability Severe Threat Area. Storms May Continue Into The Overnight Hours In Conjunction With The Increase Of The Nocturnal Low-Level Jet...But Any Severe Threat Should Remain Largely Limited To The Afternoon And Early Evening Hours.

..Goss.. 09/15/2010

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
0351 Am Cdt Wed Sep 15 2010

Valid 181200z - 231200z

...Discussion...
Medium Range Models In Decent Large Scale Agreement Through The
Period...Bringing A Cold Front -- Associated With A Deep Canadian
Upper Low -- Across The Ern U.S. Day 4 /Sat. 9-18/. In The Wake Of
This Front...A Couple Of Days Of Warm/Moist Advection Is Forecast
Across The Central U.S. Ahead Of The Next Upper System. As This
System Begins Crossing The Rockies Day 5 /Sun. 9-19/....Surface
Cyclogenesis Is Progged In Lee Of The Rockies...With A Migrating
Cyclone Then Expected To Shift Across The Central And Ern Conus
Through Days 7-8.

Limited Severe Potential May Accompany The Initial Frontal Passage
Day 4...Though Very Modest Instability Suggests The Threat Does Not
Warrant The Inclusion Of A Threat Area This Forecast.

Somewhat Greater Severe Potential Should Accompany The Next System As It Moves Into The Central Conus...As Ample Return Of Low-Level Moisture Suggests A Little Greater Potential For Daily Afternoon
Destabilization Ahead Of The System. Sufficient Flow Aloft Progged
Invof The Frontal Zone Will Likely Support Scattered Stronger
Storms...But Threat Does Not Appear To Be Sufficiently Widespread Or Significant Attm To Warrant The Introduction Of An Outlook Area.

..Goss.. 09/15/2010


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