Weather AL/FL/GA Alabama Outlook Sep 15

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl
245 Pm Edt Wed Sep 15 2010

.Synopsis...
18z Water Vapor And H4 Ruc Analysis Shows Little Change In The Upper Level Pattern Over The Past 24 Hours. Elongated Upper Level Ridge Remains In Place Extending From Northern Mexico Eastward Along The Northern Gulf Coast To The Florida Peninsula And Bahamas.
Mid-Latitude Westerlies/Northern Stream Flow Lie To The North Of
This Ridge Across The Central/Northern Tier Of The Country. Main
Features Within The Northern Stream Include Shortwave Energy Exiting
The Inter-Mountain West Toward The Northern Plains...And A Longer
Wave Trough Rapidly Exiting The Northeastern States/Quebec. 15/12z
Ktlh Sounding Showed A Very Dry Profile This Morning Over A Large
Extent Of The Trop. Pw Value Was Down To Around 0.8"...Or Only About 50% Of Normal For Mid September.

At The Surface...1024mb High Pressure Centered Over West Virginia
Continues To Ridge Southward To The Northeast/North-Central Gulf
Coast. Temperatures Have Warmed Up Nicely From Rather Cool Readings To Start The Day. Current Readings Are Approaching 90 Degrees At Most Sites And Will Top Out In The Lower 90s Within The Next Hour Or Two.

.Short Term (Tonight Through Friday Night)...
Synoptic Pattern Through The Short Term Period Will Not Change
Significantly...And Neither Will The Forecast. Elongated Upper
Level Ridging Will Remain In Place Along The Northern Gulf Coast
Through Friday Night. This Ridge Will Protect Our Region From Any
Mid-Latitude Disturbances To The North...And Prevent Tropical Storm
Karl (Currently Over The Yucatan Peninsula) From Threatening Our
Region Either. Surface High Pressure Currently Centered To Our North
Will Slide East And Off The Atlantic Sea-Board...However An
Extension Of This High Will Continue To Ridge Back Into The
Southeastern States. The Stacked Ridging Will Result In Our
Atmospheric Column Remaining On The Dry Side Through The Period...
Which Will Keep Rain Chances Low...And Daytime Temps Slightly Above Average (Lower 90s Inland/ Upper 80s Coast). Can Not Rule Out A Brief Shower Late In The Day On Thursday Or Friday Toward The I-75 Corridor/Suwannee River Valley Associated With The Focus Along The Arriving East Coast Sea-Breeze. The Latest Local Hi-Res Wrf Output Is On Board With This Scenario...And Does Move A Few Showers Into Our Far Eastern Zones After 2-3 Pm. However...Any Low Topped Convection That Does Get Going Will Be Widely Sct And Very Brief In Nature.

Another Relative Cool Overnight Tonight...With Light Winds And Dry
Conditions Allowing Inland Locations To Drop Into The Lower/Middle
60s By Sunrise. Along The Coast Temps Will Drop To Within A Few
Degrees Of 70. As The Surface High Moves Off The Atlantic Coast...
The Flow Will Favor A Slow Rebound In Low Level Moisture...And Hence A Rebound In Overnight Lows As Well By The End Of The Week. Lows Temps For Thursday/Friday Nights Will Be Back Near Climo In The Middle 60s To Near 70 Inland...And Lower 70s Near The Coast.

.Long Term (Saturday Through Next Wednesday)...
The Global Models Are In Very Good Agreement With Upper Level
Ridging Dominating The Southeastern U.S. For The Weekend And Early
Next Week As Powerful Hurricane Igor Passes Safely To The Ne Of The
East Coast Of Fl. This Should Generally Translate Into A Hot And Dry
Fcst For The Above 4 Day Period With 500 Mb Heights Still Holding In
Around The 500 Dm Range Give Or Take A Few Decameters. This Should Help Keep Our Fairly Remarkable Streak Of Above Normal Temperatures (Especially High Temps) Going For Yet Another Week With No True Sign Of Fall In Sight. Also...The Latest Set Of Mex Guidance Has Even Bumped Up Low Temps A Couple Of Degrees As Well...So Will Have To Keep An Eye On The Record Books For Average September Temps In Tallahassee. As Of Sept 13th...Our Mean Temp Was 83.0...But #1 On The All Time List Was A Tremendous 84.0 Recorded In 1925.

However...Numbers 2-5 Will Probably Be Well Within Reach As Their
Means In Order Are 81.6 In 1933 And 1921...And 81.0 In 2005. As For
Pops...Despite The 20%S Being Introduced In The Mex Guidance...
Believe That This Is More An Artifact Of The Guidance Converging
With Climatology Than The Actual Synoptic Scale Pattern.
Therefore...Will Leave Silent 10s In Throughout The Period.

.Marine...
High Pressure To Our North Is Resulting In A Moderate Easterly Flow
Across The Northeast Gulf Of Mexico. The Position Of The High Favors
Another Easterly Wind Surge Tonight Into Thursday Morning Which Is
Anticipated To Reach Solid Cautionary Levels. The High Will Shift
Eastward Off The Atlantic Seaboard During The End Of The Week.
Although The General Flow Will Remain From The East Into The Start
Of The Upcoming Weekend...The High Position After Tonight Will Not
Favor The Easterly Surges To Be As Strong.

.Aviation...
A Shallow Cu Field...Around 4-6 Kft...Will Continue To Form As The
Afternoon Progresses...Similar To Yesterday. Winds Will Remain Out
Of The East Around 10 Kts...Becoming Light In The Overnight Hours
At All Terminals. Slightly Drier Air In The Midlevels...Seen On The
12 Utc Tlh Sounding...And Modeled Condensation Pressure Deficits
Both Concur With The Thinking That There Will Likely Be Mvfr Vis/Cig
Restrictions At The Ern-Most Terminals In The Early Morning Hours...
Mainly Impacting Aby And Vld. Winds Will Pick Up Again After Sunrise
And Another Cu Field Will Form Early Thursday Afternoon.

.Fire Weather...
Drier Air Coupled With High Kbdi Values And High Dispersions Led To
A Red Flag Warning In Effect For The Rest Of The Afternoon For Most
Of The Inland Nrn Fl Counties And Sern Al Counties In Our Cwa.
Conditions Will Not Be Dry Enough Over The Next Few Days To Warrant
Any Watches Or Warnings. However...Dispersions Are Forecast To Get
Relatively High Once Again On Thursday...So We Will Continue To
Monitor The Situation.

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Tallahassee 66 90 68 92 70 / 0 10 0 10 0
Panama City 71 90 72 92 73 / 0 0 0 10 10
Dothan 64 91 66 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 63 90 66 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 62 90 67 91 67 / 0 20 10 10 0
Cross City 63 91 69 92 67 / 0 10 0 10 0
Apalachicola 73 89 73 89 73 / 10 10 10 10 10


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