Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LARGE SCALE LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT HAS NOTABLY DEAMPLIFIED SINCE
LAST NIGHT. IT COMMENCES IN NRN STREAM WITH TROUGH JUST OFF PAC
COAST...BROAD RIDGING FROM PAC COAST TO WRN GREAT LAKES...AND A
TROUGH OVER NE CONUS. SRN STREAM MARKED BY STRONG AND PERSISTENT
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS BUT EXTENDING EWD INTO NE
GULF REGION AND WRN ATLC. SO SHORT TERM LOCAL WEATHER REMAINS DRY
AND WARM. AT SURFACE...LOW OVER OH VALLEY WITH A QUASI-STNRY
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT SWWD THRU MEMPHIS AND INTO SRN OK. HIGH
IN SW ATLC WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SWWD TO ACROSS SE REGION. ALL THIS
MAINTAINS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NE GULF.

ON FRIDAY...NRN STREAM ERN TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS MID ATLC
COAST AND THEN OFF COAST BY EARLY SAT WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL SERVE TO INITIALLY AMPLIFY SE
MID/UPPER RIDGE BEFORE IT DEAMPLIFIES BY LATE SAT. AT LOW LEVELS...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCD OH VALLEY LOW MOVES NEWD UNDER
INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH AND PUSHES FRONT SEWD TO TN VALLEY/NRN
MOST GA BY LATE FRI. AS A RESULT...SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES INITIALLY WEAKENS. BUT WITH DECREASING DYNAMICS...FRONT
STALLS INVCNTY TN VALLEY ON SAT AND THEN WASHES. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP SWWD FROM GA ON SAT AND PROVIDE A
LITTLE EXTRA MOISTURE (ISOLD SHWRS) FOR MAINLY ERN COUNTIES. BY
SUNDAY...NEITHER FRONT IS STILL A FACTOR AND SURFACE HIGH REBUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES SO MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD.

WILL GO WITH NIL POPS THUR MON THEN WDLY SCT POPS ON TUES. WITH
LOCAL AREA TO REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR AND DEEP LAYER RIDGE PREDOMINANT
SYSTEM...BOTH MIN AND MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
WITH 65-69 DEGREE LOWS AND 90 TO 93 DEGREE HIGHS.


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