Hurricane Igor Has 150 mph Winds - Almost Cat 5 Strength

By: Hurricane Center and Oscar Fann meteorologist WTVY-TV
By: Hurricane Center and Oscar Fann meteorologist WTVY-TV

(Oscar's notes -
In 24 hours the pressure in IGOR dropped from 992 mb to 935 mb – a change of 57 mb! A 24 mb drop over 24 hours is considered a rapid intensification, much less a 57 mb drop.

However, the 57 mb drop is not a record – in 1988, Hurricane Gilbert’s pressure went from 960 mb to 888 mb (a 72 mb drop) in the central Caribbean before slamming into the eastern Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 5 with winds exceeding 165 mph.

The Hurricane Center would be the first to tell you not enough is understood about why and how such rapid intensification occurs in hurricanes. So this lack of knowledge limits the information that goes into computer guidance that forecasts hurricane strength.

A stronger hurricane may also follow a different path over time since intense hurricanes can modify the interactions with the surrounding atmosphere.

In fact, there seems to be a growing spread in the computer weather models predicting IGOR’s path for later this week. The only constant is IGOR stays in the Atlantic. Bermuda, then the U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward will be watching closely.)

Hurricane Igor Advisory Number 20
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al112010
1100 Pm Ast Sun Sep 12 2010

...Igor Still Intensifying...

Summary Of 1100 Pm Ast...0300 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...17.6n 47.8w
About 1005 Mi...1620 Km E Of The Northern Leeward Islands
Maximum Sustained Winds...150 Mph...240 Km/Hr
Present Movement...W Or 270 Degrees At 13 Mph...20 Km/Hr
Minimum Central Pressure...935 Mb...27.61 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1100 Pm Ast...0300 Utc...The Eye Of Hurricane Igor Was Located
Near Latitude 17.6 North...Longitude 47.8 West. Igor Is Moving
Toward The West Near 13 Mph...20 Km/Hr. A Turn Toward The
West-Northwest With Some Decrease In Forward Speed Is Expected To
Begin Late Monday And Tuesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To Near 150 Mph...240
Km/Hr...With Higher Gusts. Igor Is A Category Four Hurricane On
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some Fluctuation In
Intensity Is Likely During The Next 48 Hours...And Igor Could
Become A Category Five Hurricane On Monday.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 40 Miles...65 Km...From
The Center...And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 160 Miles...260 Km.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 935 Mb...27.61 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
None.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Complete Advisory...500 Am Ast.

Forecaster Berg

Hurricane Igor Discussion Number 20
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al112010
1100 Pm Ast Sun Sep 12 2010

Igor Has Continued To Intensify With Very Cold Cloud Tops...Lower
Than -70c...Wrapping Around The Slowly-Shrinking Eye During The
Past Several Hours. Although The Tops Have Recently Warmed A
Little Over The Southwest Quadrant...Subjective Dvorak Estimates
From Tafb And Sab Are T6.5/127 Kt And Objective Estimates From The
Adt And Hie Algorithms Are T6.6/130 Kt And T6.9/137 Kt...
Respectively. As A Compromise...The Initial Intensity Is Set At
130 Kt. An Experimental Product From Uw-Cimss Run At Nhc Indicates
That There Is A 42 Percent Chance Of Secondary Eyewall Formation
Within The Next 12 Hours...And A 90 Percent Chance Within 24 Hours.
The Period Of Rapid Intensification Is Likely To End Soon...But The
Official Forecast Follows The Ships/Lgem Models By Showing Igor
Reaching The Threshold Of Category 5 Strength Before That Happens.
Some Weakening Is Then Indicated After Eyewall Replacement
Occurs...But Igor Is Expected To Remain A Powerful Hurricane For
Several Days. As Is Always The Case With Strong Hurricanes Like
Igor...Fluctuations In Intensity Are Likely But Are Also Difficult
To Forecast.

The Mean Motion Is 270/11...But Igor Has Been Wobbling A Little To
The South Of That Vector. Igor Is Moving Into An Environment Where
The Steering Flow Is Becoming Increasingly Dictated By A Large
Longwave Trough Over The Western Atlantic...And The Hurricane Is
Expected To Respond By Turning Toward The West-Northwest Within The Next 24-48 Hours. Some Of The Global Models Indicate That The
Trough Could Flatten A Little By Day 3 And Allow The Subtropical
Ridge To Build Westward...But At This Time There Is Too Much
Disagreement To Indicate A Westward Turn In The Forecast. The
Track Guidance Has Shifted A Little To The North...But The New
Official Forecast Still Lies On The Southern Side Of The Guidance
Envelope Until It Becomes Clear That Igor Is Ready To Turn. This
Solution Also Gives Credence To The More Southern Ecmwf And Ukmet
Models.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 13/0300z 17.6n 47.8w 130 Kt
12hr Vt 13/1200z 17.8n 49.5w 140 Kt
24hr Vt 14/0000z 18.2n 51.3w 135 Kt
36hr Vt 14/1200z 18.9n 53.0w 130 Kt
48hr Vt 15/0000z 19.8n 54.6w 125 Kt
72hr Vt 16/0000z 22.0n 57.5w 125 Kt
96hr Vt 17/0000z 24.0n 60.0w 120 Kt
120hr Vt 18/0000z 27.0n 63.0w 110 Kt

Forecaster Berg


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