Long Term DIscussion

By: NWS
By: NWS


.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE MODELS ARE NOW IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE 00 UTC GFS AND THE EARLIER 12 UTC
RUN OF THE ECMWF ARE GRADUALLY CONVERGING CLOSER ON A TIME FOR THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN TO A
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING PASSAGE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS STILL
SHOWING A DAYTIME PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT IT IS NOW A
BIT FASTER FROM YESTERDAY`S 00 UTC RUN. THEREFORE...WILL BE VERY
INTERESTED TO SEE THE NEW 00 UTC EURO RUN WHEN IT COMES OUT LATER
THIS MORNING AND HOPE IT CONVERGES TOWARDS THE GFS. THEREAFTER...THE
SOLUTIONS DO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND
ALTHOUGH BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOULD BE DRY WITH BELOW CLIMO POPS...THE
ECMWF STILL KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINANT IN OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE IT WESTWARD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
SETTING UP ACROSS THE SE U.S. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE SOLUTION OF AN
UPPER TROF...THE MEX NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DERIVED FROM THE GFS STILL
KEEPS TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...SO THE WARM SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. ALSO...DESPITE THE 20% POPS IN THE MEX
GUIDANCE...BELIEVE EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS WILL BE DRY
ENOUGH TO DROP POPS TO SILENT 10S FOR TUES AND WED...AND THE 20%S
SHOW MORE OF THE CONVERGENCE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.


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