Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE GREATEST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...AND AFTER BEING A
BIT ON THE LOW SIDE ON MONDAY...WE BE A BIT MORE WARY OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. FOR TODAY...HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO HAVE ITS MAXIMUM INFLUENCE TODAY AS IT ESSENTIALLY
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD....THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
POPS...AND EVEN THE 18 UTC WRF RUN IS A SHOWING MORE SPARSE ACTIVITY
TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH THIS GENERAL E-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE FAVORED
AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
1/3 OF THE CWA. USING OUR CONFIDENCE IN GUIDANCE GRIDS...WHICH BLEND
JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING AVAILABLE...THE DERIVED POPS ARE HIGHER THAN
ANY OF THE USUAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...SO MAY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
AND GO WITH 20 PERCENT POPS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE BIG BEND TO
THE EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER...EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL GA...AND UP POPS TO 30 FOR THE SE BIG BEND. THEREAFTER...
EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN...SO AM NOT SURE WHY
THE MAV POPS ARE SO LOW ON THU...SO WILL DEFINITELY PREFER THE
HIGHER MET GUIDANCE HERE. ALSO...BELIEVE MAX TEMPS MIGHT BE A BIT
TOO LOW TODAY...AS TLH HIT 96 FOR A HIGH ON MONDAY...AND WITH THE
RISING HEIGHTS SEE NO REASON TO BELIEVE THE 93S IN BOTH THE MET AND
MAV. FOR DEWPOINTS...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE A SHOT A RED FLAG
CONDITIONS IN ANY CASE...BUT THERE ARE SOME NOTICEABLE DISCREPANCIES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SO WILL BLEND THE MAV...MET...AND
MOSGUIDANCE OVER LAND.


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