Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY) FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK...AND AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A SUMMERY
PATTERN WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE (LOWER/MIDDLE 90S)...AND JUST A SMALL CHANCE
OF A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. LOWEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
ON THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A SLOW INCREASE IN THE MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING POPS BACK TOWARD CLIMO VALUES IN THE
30-40% CHANCE RANGE.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT IN OVERALL PATTERN BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. DOES LOOK LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
GFS STILL KEEPS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN OUR
WEATHER AND WOULD SUGGEST CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE WARM AND HUMID.
ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A WEDGE HIGH TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND RESULT IN A "BACK-DOOR" COLD FRONT SCENARIO.
IF THIS WERE TO PLAY OUT...THEN A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WOULD BE
ARRIVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION...AND SEE IF THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
TREND DRIER WITH FUTURE FORECAST RUNS.


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