Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) THE DRY AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THIS EVENING...BUT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MESOSCALE FORCING AND MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG
TOWARD DAYBREAK. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALOFT.
A WEAK TROUGH (CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS) WILL PROPAGATE
WESTWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD KEEP OUR POP VERY LOW
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AFTER THIS TROUGH
PASSES WEST OF OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
LITTLE MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. THE POP WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT...WITH THE
HIGHEST POP OVER NORTH FL (WHERE THE 1000-700 MEAN WIND WILL BE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SEA BREEZE-INDUCED CONVECTION). TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE DAYTIME.


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