New Tropical Depression..SW Gulf..Texas Threat

...New Tropical Depression Forms In The Extreme Southwestern Gulf Of
Mexico...Tropical Storm Warnings Issued For Portions Of Mexico...

Kerry-Douglas Vredenburg braves the wind and rain from Tropical Storm Edouard as he walks along Seawall Blvd. Tuesday, Aug. 5, 2008, in Galveston. (AP Photo/Melissa Phillip / Houston Chronicle )

Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al102010
1000 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 05 2010

...New Tropical Depression Forms In The Extreme Southwestern Gulf Of
Mexico...Tropical Storm Warnings Issued For Portions Of Mexico...

Summary Of 1000 Pm Cdt...0300 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...20.7n 95.2w
About 270 Mi...435 Km Se Of La Pesca Mexico
About 200 Mi...325 Km Ese Of Tampico Mexico
Maximum Sustained Winds...30 Mph...45 Km/Hr
Present Movement...N Or 5 Degrees At 7 Mph...11 Km/Hr
Minimum Central Pressure...1003 Mb...29.62 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

The Government Of Mexico Has Issued A Tropical Storm Warning For The Coast Of Mexico From Tampico To The Mouth Of The Rio Grande.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* The Coast Of Mexico From Tampico To The Mouth Of The Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area...In This Case Within 24
To 36 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area In The United
States...Including Possible Inland Watches And Warnings...Please
Monitor Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service
Forecast Office. For Storm Information Specific To Your Area Outside
The United States...Please Monitor Products Issued By Your National
Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1000 Pm Cdt...0300 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Depression Ten
Was Located Near Latitude 20.7 North...Longitude 95.2 West. The
Depression Is Moving Toward The North Near 7 Mph...11 Km/Hr. A Turn
Toward The Northwest And An Increase In Forward Speed Are Expected By Late Monday. On The Forecast Track...The Center Of The
Depression Is Expected To Be Near The Coast Of Northeastern Mexico
In The Warning Area Early Tuesday Morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 30 Mph...45 Km/Hr...With Higher
Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Expected Prior To Landfall...And The
Depression Could Become A Tropical Storm On Monday.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1003 Mb...29.62 Inches...
Based On Reports From Noaa Buoy 42055.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected To Reach The Warning
Area Monday Night.

Rainfall...The Depression Is Expected To Produce Rainfall
Accumulations Of 4 To 8 Inches Over Northeastern Mexico Into South
Texas With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 12 Inches Possible. These
Rainfall Amounts May Cause Life-Threatening Flash Flood And
Mudslides...Especially Over The Higher Terrain Of Northeastern
Mexico.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Intermediate Advisory...100 Am Cdt.
Next Complete Advisory...400 Am Cdt.

Forecaster Blake/Brennan

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al102010
1000 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 05 2010

The Small Low Pressure Area In The Extreme Southwestern Gulf Of
Mexico Has Developed Enough Organized Convection To Warrant It Being Declared A Tropical Depression This Evening. Curved Bands Are
Readily Apparent On The Alvarado Mexico Radar Site...And A 2340 Utc
Windsat Pass Also Shows A Distinct Curved Band Signature. Satellite
Classifications From Tafb/Sab Are Both T1.5...25 Kt...And This Will
Be Used As The Initial Intensity. Conditions Appear Quite Favorable
For Intensification Until Landfall Due To Very Warm Water And Light
Wind Shear. All Of The Models Except The Hwrf Show Strengthening
And The Official Forecast Is A Little Higher Than Most Of The
Guidance.

The Initial Motion Is A Somewhat Uncertain 005/6. The Cyclone Should
Turn Toward The North-Northwest And Northwest Tomorrow And Increase Its Forward Speed As Middle-Tropospheric Ridging Builds Across The Northern Gulf Of Mexico. The Global Models Are In Good Agreement On This Scenario...Although There Are Some Differences On When The Left Turn Occurs. The Official Forecast Lies Near The Dynamical Model Consensus...And Is A Little North Of The Gfs Model.

The Track And Intensity Forecast Requires The Issuance Of Tropical
Storm Warnings For A Portion Of The Mexican Coast At This Time.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 06/0300z 20.7n 95.2w 25 Kt
12hr Vt 06/1200z 21.6n 95.4w 35 Kt
24hr Vt 07/0000z 23.3n 96.9w 45 Kt
36hr Vt 07/1200z 24.7n 98.4w 30 Kt...Inland
48hr Vt 08/0000z 26.4n 99.9w 25 Kt...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
72hr Vt 09/0000z 30.0n 100.5w 20 Kt...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
96hr Vt 10/0000z...Dissipated


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