Weather Tristate AL/FL/GA Discussion

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl
815 Pm Edt Sun Sep 5 2010

.Synopsis...
At 8 Pm Edt...Skies Ranged From Mostly Cloudy Across Coastal
Sections Of Florida To Clear Inland. Under Wly Steering Flow...Radar
Indicated Wdly Sct Light Showers Moving From The Ern Gulf Of Mex
Newd Across The Southeast Big Bend. The Clouds And Showers Were
Located Along And Just South Of A Weak Front (See Below). Temps
Ranged From Upper 70s Se Big Bend To Low 80s Elsewhere. Winds Were Generally Calm To Light W/Sw.

At Upper Levels...
The Large Scale Longwave Pattern Is Highlighted By A 554dm Low Over Montana/Canada Border With Through Swd Across Great Basin...A Ridge Over Plains...And A Vertically Stacked 540dm Low Over Hudson Bay With A Broad Trough Swd Into Ga/Ala. In Srn Stream...Ridging Exists From Ern Pac Thru Desert Sw And Into Cntrl Tx. Another Ridge Was Noted From Se Gulf Newd Across South Half Of Fl And Into Wrn Atlc. A Weakness Exits Between These Ridges Over Much Of Gulf Of Mex Allowing Some Tropical Moisture To Spread Nwd.

During The Next 12-24 Hrs...The Vigorous Wrn Upper Trough Will
Continue Ewd Across The Nrn Plains...Taking On A Negative Tilt As It
Approaches The Upper Ms Valley By Mon Evening. This Will Push Cntrl
Ridge Ewd With High Beginning To Build Over Region. In Response...
H5 Ern Trough Forecast To Quickly Lift Out Followed By Rapidly
Rising Heights And A Return To Summer Type Temps Over The Southeast. By Wednesday A 592 Dm High Is Forecast To Be Centered Over The Fl Panhandle And Dominate The Area Weather Through The Workweek.

At Lower Levels...
Analysis Showed A 1014 Mb Low Near Jacksonville Fl On A Stationary
Front That Extended From The La Coast...Through Tallahassee Fl...And
Into The Coastal Waters Of Sc. Front Was Nudged Swd Sun Aftn/Eve By A Strong Passing Shortwave. In Its Wake Clouds Decreased From Nw To Se. Front Noted By Only Small Temp Differences...But Large Dew Point Gradients...I.E. 73 To 74 Degree Dew Point Across Coastal Sections Of North Florida Down To Low To Mid 50s Se Ala/Sw Ga. Noticeably Drier Airmass In Its Wake Is Also Evident By 24 Hr Dew Point
Comparisons. This Indicates A Noticeable Drying Out Of Local Airmass
From Nw-Se Behind Front With Dew Points Ranging From 2 To 4 Degrees Drier Coastal Counties Up To 10 To 15 Degrees Drier Se Ala/Sw Ga Compared To Same Time Yesterday.

During The Next 12-24 Hrs...Absent Any Upper Dynamics...This
Quasi-Stationary Front Is Expected To Dissipate With Highest Pop
Along And East Of It. By Tuesday The Front Will Be All But Gone
But Enough Tropical Moisture Remains For Low Chance Pop...Mainly Fl.
In Its Place...The Large Ridge Of High Pressure Over The Mid-
Atlantic States Will Bridge Across The Dissipating Front. At Same
Time A Strong Gulf Ridge Shifts Slowly North With The Axis Centered
Just North Of Our Cwa. This Combination Shifts Prevailing Local Flow
From West To East Generating An East Coast Sea-Breeze Penetrating
Well Inland. However By Wed...Model Sounding Data Note That Ample
Dry Air Moves In Above 850 Mb And The Easterlies Become Deep And
Likely Too Strong To Allow Sea Breezes To Develop.

.Short Term...(Rest Of Tonight Through Wednesday)
With Sun Aftn Impulse Well E Of Cwa...Mostly Clear Skies Are
Expected Except For Ern Big Bend Where A Small Chance Of Light
Showers Remains Possible. Lack Of Clouds Coupled With Lowering
Dew-Point Values Will Likely Result In Temperatures Dipping Into The
Low 60s Se Ala/Sw Ga To Te Low 70s Se Big Bend And All Coastlines.
Should Remain Too Dry For Fog Except For Light Fog Eastern Counties
Of Big Bend And S/Cntrl Ga.

.Aviation...Vfr Conditions Will Be Expected Through Much Of The
Period. Another Brief Period With Reduced Vsbys In Fog Will Be A
Possibility Overnight And Around Daybreak Monday Over The Vld/Tlh
Terminals. Elsewhere...The Dry Air In The Wake Of The Frontal
Boundary Should Preclude Any Chances Of Fog.

.Marine...
Eve Winds And Sea As Low As You Can Get And See Little Change
Overnight. The Stationary Front Will Dissipate Across The Coastal
Waters Rest Of Tonight And Monday As A High Pressure Ridge Builds
Across The Southeast. This Ridge Will Weaken Late This Week As A
Weak Cold Front Approaches From The Northwest.

.Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Al...None.
Ga...None.
Fl...None.
Gm...None.


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