Weather US Extended Forecast Outlook

Extended Forecast Discussion
Nws Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Camp Springs Md
239 Pm Edt Sun Sep 05 2010

Valid 12z Wed Sep 08 2010 - 12z Sun Sep 12 2010

The Full Envelope Of Medium Range Model And Ensemble Solutions
Seem Well Clustered Overall And Low Solution Spread Suggests Above
Normal Forecast Confidence. In This Pattern Aloft...A Amplified/Cooling Wrn Us Trough And Associated Pcpn Focus Thu Ejects Out Through The Rockies To The N-Central Plains Then Srn Can And The Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Fri-Sun As A Kicker Pacific Trough Upstream Digs Back Into The West Coast. This Progression Forces An Amplified And Cooling Lead Trough And Unsettled Pcpn To Gradually Work Out From The Nern Us Thu/Fri To The Canadian Maritimes Next Weekend.

Hpc Guidance Remains Primarily Derived From A Simple 50-50 Blend
Of The 00 Utc Gfs/Ecmwf That Has Good Ensemble Support And Keeps
Good Continuity. This Blend Offers A Compromise System Translation
And Smoothes Lingering Uncertainty At Less Predictable Smaller
Scales. We See Minimal Reason To Make Many Forecast Alterations
After Consideration Of 12 Utc Guidance.

Elsewhere...Questions Continue With Respect To A Developing Wrn
Gulf Of Mex Low Related To Former Tropical Depression 11-E. These
Concern Potential Organization And Motion To Ne Mex/Tx Just Prior
To The Medium Range. A Handful Of Ensemble Members Even Maintain
The System As A Low Pressure Area From Central Tx Thru Ern Ok/Srn
Mo To The Lower Oh Vly. However...Will Keep The System A Tropical
Wave Across Tx Midweek Maintaining Continuity And Leaned Away From The Nam...Though Recent Ecmwf Trends Favor A Stronger Solution. Either Way...It Should Be Wet Across The Lone Star State/Portions Of The Southern Plains Into The Mid-Ms Valley Mid-Later Week As Per Deep Moisture Then Eventual Frontal Approach. Please See The Latest Outlooks From The Nhc Concerning This System.

Roth/Schichtel


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