Weather Discussion for Southern & Central Alabama

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Al
304 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 5 2010

.Discussion...

If You Have Not Been Outside Yet Today...Step Out There And Feel
This Spectacular Day...As Temperatures Are Going To Warm Back Up And Moisture Will Be On The Return For Us Through The Week.

Will Be Watching Temperatures Labor Day Morning As Cool Readings
Will Be Experienced Once Again. We Fell To 48 In Haleyville This
Morning...But We Did Not Set Records Anywhere Else...Likely
Because Of A Thin Layer Of High Clouds That Formed Late Last
Night. We Will Be Flirting With Record Lows Tomorrow Morning...But
Did Not Get As Aggressive With Them As I Did Yesterday. Look For
Upper 40s Once Again In Our Low Lying Areas And Low To Middle 50s
Elsewhere.

This Dry Air Should Stick With Us For One More Day...And Then
Tuesday...Look For A Slow Return To Moisture Across The Area As The Surface High That Cooled Us Down Slides Off To The East. This Will Also Be The Reason We Return To Temperatures Closer To Normal For This Time Of Year.

Much Like Yesterdays Forecast...Will Stick With The Gfs In The
Medium And Long Term. Models Are Fluctuating Back And Forth In
Regards To The Ridge That Will Set Up Over Us. It Will Be
There...But The Question Remains How Much It Will Break Down On The
Western Periphery As The Tropical Low Over The Southwest Gulf Of
Mexico Begins To Move Off To The North. 00z And 12z Models Have
Trended Back Towards The Development Of Diurnal Showers/
Thunderstorms Over Our West By Tuesday Afternoon...And West And
North By Wednesday. Because We Are Now Seeing This Across The
Gfs/Euro/Gem...Will Bump Pops Across These Areas For Both
Afternoons...Though Not Nearly As Aggressive As Mosguide Has For
This Time Frame.

If There Is Any Good News...I Guess It Would Lay With The Fact That
It Looks Like This Ridge Is Going To Be The Controlling Factor In
Potentially Keeping The Remnants Of Gaston Well To Our South.

.Aviation...18z Taf Discussion.

There Are No Aviation Concerns As Vfr Conditions Are Expected To
Prevail Through The Period.

Notice...Keet Taf Will Have (Amd Ltd To Vis Wind And Wx) Amended To
The End Of The Forecast Through The End Of 2010. The Ceilometer Data Will Be Going Through Numerous Tests And Monitored For Accuracy.

.Fire Weather...

Red Flag Criteria Will Be Marginal Today And Monday. Rh Values
Will Drop To Below 25 Percent Each Afternoon...But 20ft Winds Stay
Below 10mph. Will Advise Caution In The Fwf...But No Additional
Products Are Needed At This Time.

.Climate...

With The Extremely Dry Air That Has Filtered Into Central
Alabama...Unseasonably Cold Temperatures Can Be Expected Monday
Morning. Here Are The Record Lows For Our Climate Sites In Central
Alabama...Each Of Which Will Be Threatened. Year Of Current
Record Is In Parentheses.

Sept 6
Birmingham 52 (1984)
Anniston 52 (1984, 1905)
Tuscaloosa 54 (1984)
Montgomery 55 (1997)

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Gadsden 50 91 59 92 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
Anniston 50 90 58 91 66 / 0 0 0 10 10
Birmingham 53 92 62 92 69 / 0 0 0 10 10
Tuscaloosa 52 93 62 93 68 / 0 0 0 20 10
Calera 54 91 62 92 69 / 0 0 0 10 10
Auburn 59 91 59 90 66 / 0 0 0 10 10
Montgomery 56 92 65 92 69 / 0 0 0 10 10
Troy 55 92 65 91 68 / 0 0 0 10 10

.Bmx Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
416 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 5 2010

.Short Term (Tonight Through Tuesday Night)...Deep Upper Trough Has
Displaced Itself North Over Southern Hudson Bay Around James Bay As Analyzed Per 05/12z Raob And Satellite Data. The Low Is Now
Vertically Stacked Indicating Cold Advective Shutdown Has Commenced. The Front Off Shore That Was Maintained By The Larger System Is Now Showing Signs Of Backing Up While Weakening. There Is A Bit Of Water Vapor In The Column But When The Isentropic Conveyor Belt Starts Up Monday There Won`T Be Enough To Bring Anything More Than Mid And High Clouds With Minimal Rain Chances.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Saturday]...No Changes. Upper High
Will Rebuild Over The Region On Monday And Dominate The Weather
Through Saturday. Weak Surface High Will Remain Through The Week. A Developing South Wind Will Allow Rising Humidity. Precipitable Water
Will Increase From Less Than An Inch Monday Morning To Between 1.5
And 2 Inches By Late Tuesday Afternoon...And Around 2.25 Inches Late In The Week. Warm Daytime Temperatures Will Slightly Destabilize The Column Bringing Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms During The
Afternoons...Tuesday Through Friday.

.Fire Weather...North Wind Will Bring Dry Air Into The Region Today
With Afternoon Relative Humidity From The Lower 20s Inland To The Mid
30s Along The Coast. Red Flag Criteria Are Being Met For The Western
Florida Panhandle. Front Offshore Will Back Up Inland As A Warm
Front. Low Level Humidity Will Increase Through Tuesday Staying Above Warning Criteria.

.Marine...Wind Flow Over The Coastal Waters Will Become More East To
Southeasterly Over The Next Couple Of Days As Sfc High Pressure
Currently Over The Southeast Drifts Eastward And Off The Atlantic
Coast And As An Area Of Low Pressure Develops And Lifts North Over The Extreme Western Gulf Of Mexico. Over The Local Marine
Area...Winds Will Be More Easterly During The Overnight And Early
Morning Hours...And More Southeasterly During The Afternoon Hours.
Wind Speeds Will Generally Be In The 10 To 15 Knot Range Through The
Period With Seas Generally No More Than Around 3 Feet. With The Old
Frontal Boundary Dissipating Offshore...Will Continue To See Some
Isolated To Ocnly Scattered Shra/Tsra...Especially Well Offshore.

.Aviation (18z Issuance)...Vfr Conditions Expected Next 24 Hrs. 12/Ds

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Mobile 65 92 73 92 / 05 20 10 30
Pensacola 70 92 76 91 / 05 20 10 30
Destin 72 89 77 90 / 05 20 10 20
Evergreen 56 94 69 94 / 05 05 05 20
Waynesboro 55 93 68 93 / 05 10 10 30
Camden 55 95 67 94 / 05 00 05 20
Crestview 58 94 70 94 / 05 10 10 20

.Mob Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Al...None.
Fl...Red Flag Warning Until 7 Pm Sunday For The Following Zones:
Coastal Escambia...Coastal Okaloosa...Coastal Santa Rosa...
Inland Escambia...Inland Okaloosa...And Inland Santa Rosa.
Ms...None.
Gm...None.


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