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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LEADING TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE BIG
BEND AND SRN GA. STILL...WILL LIMIT FORECAST TO CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARY AND DEGREE OF
MOISTENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FOLLOWING FROPA WHICH WILL ALLOW DRY AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
AGAIN. THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MUCH LIKE THE
PAST WEEK WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND LOW RAIN CHANCES. MAX/MIN
TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS
HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE 00Z NAM PUSHES
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF...BUT THIS SOLUTION DOES
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF OTHER MODEL SUPPORT SO WILL DISCOUNT FOR
NOW. MOST MODELS HAVE THIS MOISTURE STAYING WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND COASTAL WATERS WITH A SLIGHT
EXPANSION NORTHWARD POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


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