Tropical Storm Fiona Weaker

Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 16
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al082010
1100 Am Ast Fri Sep 03 2010

...Air Force Reserve Aircraft Finds Fiona Weaker...

Summary Of 1100 Am Ast...1500 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...29.0n 66.4w
About 245 Mi...400 Km Ssw Of Bermuda
Maximum Sustained Winds...45 Mph...75 Km/Hr
Present Movement...Nne Or 20 Degrees At 13 Mph...20 Km/Hr
Minimum Central Pressure...1010 Mb...29.83 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

None.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Bermuda

For Storm Information Specific To Bermuda...Please Monitor Products
Issued By The Bermuda Weather Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1100 Am Ast...1500 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Fiona Was
Located Near Latitude 29.0 North...Longitude 66.4 West. Fiona Is
Moving Toward The North-Northeast Near 13 Mph...20 Km/Hr...And This
General Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next Day Or So With
Some Increase In Forward Speed Anticipated On Sunday. On The
Forecast Track...The Center Of Fiona Should Be Near Bermuda Early
Saturday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 45 Mph...75 Km/Hr... With Higher Gusts. Additional Weakening Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours...And Fiona Could Become A Tropical Depression By
Late Saturday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 85 Miles...140 Km
From The Center.

The Latest Central Pressure Reported By An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter Is 1010 Mb...29.83 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Are Expected To Reach Bermuda
By Late This Evening Or Early Saturday Morning.

Rainfall...Storm Total Rainfall Amounts Of 1 To 3 Inches Are
Possible On Bermuda.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Intermediate Advisory...200 Pm Ast.
Next Complete Advisory...500 Pm Ast.

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 16
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al082010
1100 Am Ast Fri Sep 03 2010

Aircraft Data From This Morning Showed Peak Sfmr Winds Of 39 Kt And
Flight-Level Winds Of 48 Kt...Supporting An Initial Wind Speed Of
About 40 Kt. Satellite Images Show That Convection Has Become
Rather Thin Near The Center...With The Circulation Of Fiona Also
Taking On An Elongated Appearance. Slow Weakening Seems Likely
Given The Persistent Northerly Shear And Model Guidance Is On Good
Agreement With This Scenario. The Nhc Forecast Is Basically An
Update Of The Previous Advisory. All Models Weaken The System
Dramatically In A Couple Of Days...And Dissipation Is Expected
After That Time. Given The Latest Satellite Presentation...It Would
Not Be A Surprise If Fiona Decayed Faster Than The Forecast Below.

Fiona Has Turned To The North-Northeast And Is Moving 020/11 Kt. The
Models Are Well Clustered Now On Bringing The Center Near Bermuda
In About 18 Hours. Thereafter...Some Acceleration Is Anticipated As
The Storm Encounters Increasing Southwesterly Flow. The Nhc
Forecast Is Very Close To The Previous One And The Dynamical Model
Consensus.

The Initial Wind Radii Have Been Reduced Based On Aircraft
Data...And Still Might Be A Little Generous.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 03/1500z 29.0n 66.4w 40 Kt
12hr Vt 04/0000z 30.6n 65.7w 35 Kt
24hr Vt 04/1200z 32.7n 64.6w 35 Kt
36hr Vt 05/0000z 35.2n 63.1w 30 Kt
48hr Vt 05/1200z 38.1n 61.2w 25 Kt
72hr Vt 06/1200z...Dissipated


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