Weather Discussion AL/FL/GA Sep 3 Morning

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl
322 Am Edt Fri Sep 3 2010

.Short Term (Today Through Sunday)...A Very Dry Airmass Remains In
Place Across The Region This Morning With Pwat Hovering Around One
Inch. At Upper Levels...An Upper Trough Is Approaching From The
Midwest With The Subtropical Ridge Displaced South Over Southern
Florida. Mostly Clear Skies And Warm Temperatures Are Anticipated
Today With Dewpoints Dropping Into Lower 60s This Afternoon.

For Saturday...The Digging Upper Trough Will Push A Weak Front
Across The Area. Dynamics Are Forecast To Be Very Weak With Very
Limited Moisture. Therefore...Any Pops For Saturday Will Be
Confined To The Southeastern Big Bend Where Slightly Deeper
Moisture Will Exist On The North Side Of The Subtropical Ridge.
Have Discounted The 00z Nam Solution Which Pulls This Deep
Moisture Too Far North Across Much Of The Cwa For Saturday.

The Front Is Expected To Wash Out On Sunday As The Upper Trough
Lifts Out And Heights Rise. The Dry Weather Will Continue For Most
Of The Area With Slight Chance Pops Confined To The Southeastern
Big Bend Once Again.

.Long Term (Sunday Night Through Next Friday)...Mainly Dry
Weather Will Likely Continue Into The Extended Period. High
Pressure Will Likely Be The Dominant Player Across The Local
Region With Light Winds And Slightly Above Normal Temperatures.
The 00z Nam Pushes Deep Tropical Moisture Back Into The Area By
Monday In Association With A Weak Surface Trough Across The
Gulf...But This Solution Does Not Have Much In The Way Of Other
Model Support So Will Discount For Now. Most Models Have This
Moisture Staying Well To Our South And West Through The Period.
Pops Of 20 To 30 Percent Will Be Limited To Mainly The Eastern Big
Bend And Coastal Waters With A Slight Expansion Northward Possible
Towards The End Of Next Week.

.Aviation...Vfr Conditions Will Prevail Through Today With The
Exception Of Some Early Morning Patchy Mvfr Br Across The Region.
This Should Dissipate By 13 Utc. Winds Are Generally Expected To
Be West To Southwest Between 6 And 9 Knots.

.Marine...Winds And Seas Will Be Minimal Through Much Of The
Weekend As The Pressure Gradient Across The Waters Remains Weak.
High Pressure Will Build Down The Eastern Seaboard Early Next Week
With East To Northeast Flow Developing. Winds And Seas May
Approach Headline Criteria By Late Monday Or Tuesday.

.Fire Weather...Have Upgraded The Entire Fire Weather Watch To A
Red Flag Warning For Today. Unlike Thursday...Dispersions Are
Forecast To Be Below 75 Across The Florida Panhandle.
However...Slightly Drier Air Will Be Present And 4 Hours Or More
Of Sub 35 Percent Rh Are Possible Across The Warning Area. The
Other Area Of Interest For Today Is In Southeast Alabama Where
Kbdi Is Above 500 And Min Rh Values May Dip To Near 30 Percent.
However...20 Foot Winds Are Forecast To Be A Little Under The 10
Mph Threshold So Will Hold Off Of Any Warning Up There.

A Little More Moisture Will Return To The Area Ahead Of A Weak Cold
Front On Saturday...So Not Expecting Any Watches Or Warnings Then.
On Sunday...Drier Air Once Again Moves Into The Area And Red Flag
Conditions Are A Distinct Possibility Across The Inland Zones Of The
Florida Panhandle. Will Have To Watch The 20 Foot Winds Again In
Southeast Alabama As Well With Sub 30 Percent Rh A Possibility Up
There On Sunday.

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Tallahassee 94 71 93 68 92 / 0 0 10 10 10
Panama City 90 76 89 71 88 / 0 10 10 10 20
Dothan 95 69 91 63 90 / 0 0 10 10 10
Albany 94 69 91 63 91 / 0 0 10 10 10
Valdosta 94 70 92 67 92 / 0 0 10 10 10
Cross City 93 71 92 71 91 / 0 10 20 10 20
Apalachicola 88 76 89 73 87 / 0 10 10 10 20

.Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fl...Red Flag Warning From 2 Pm Edt /1 Pm Cdt/ This Afternoon
Through This Evening For The Following Zones: Calhoun...
Gadsden...Holmes...Inland Bay...Inland Jefferson...Inland


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