Tropical Storm Fiona Forecast To Slowly Weaken

Bulletin
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 12a
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al082010
200 Pm Ast Thu Sep 02 2010

...Fiona Continues Moving Toward The North-Northwest...

Summary Of 200 Pm Ast...1800 Utc...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...25.0n 66.3w
About 520 Mi...835 Km Ssw Of Bermuda
Maximum Sustained Winds...50 Mph...85 Km/Hr
Present Movement...Nnw Or 330 Degrees At 17 Mph...28 Km/Hr
Minimum Central Pressure...1002 Mb...29.59 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

None

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Bermuda.

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Within The Warning Area Within 36 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Please Monitor
Products Issued By Your National Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 200 Pm Ast...1800 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Fiona Was
Located Near Latitude 25.0 North...Longitude 66.3 West. Fiona Is
Moving Toward The North-Northwest Near 17 Mph...28 Km/Hr. A Turn
Toward The North Is Expected Tonight...With A Motion Toward The
North And Then North-Northeast Forecast By Late Friday. On The
Forecast Track The Center Of Fiona Is Expected To Pass Near Bermuda
Late Friday Or Early Saturday.

Microwave Data That Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 50 Mph...85 Km/Hr...With Higher Gusts. Slow Weakening Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 115 Miles...185 Km
From The Center...Mainly To The East.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1002 Mb...29.59 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Force Winds Are Expected In Bermuda By Late
Friday.

Rainfall...Storm Total Rainfall Amounts Of 1 To 3 Inches Are
Possible In Bermuda.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Complete Advisory...500 Pm Ast.

Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 13
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al082010
500 Pm Ast Thu Sep 02 2010

There Has Been Little Change With Fiona During The Day. The Storm
Continues The Pattern Observed During The Last Day Or So Of Bursts
Of Convection Forming Near The Center...Then Shearing Away. An
Ascat Pass From Late This Morning Showed Maximum Winds Of About 40 Kt. Given The Well-Documented Low Bias Of That Instrument...45 Kt
Seems Like A Reasonable Initial Wind Speed. The Intensity Forecast
Is Difficult Because It Seems Like Fiona Has Been Withstanding The
Shear Better Than Most Tropical Cyclones. The Latest Intensity
Guidance Does Not Weaken The Storm As Quickly As Earlier...But Is
Actually Pretty Close To The Previous Forecast. Thus No Changes Are
Made To The Last Nhc Forecast. After 72 Hours...All Of The Global
Models Show The Tropical Cyclone Shearing Out As It Moves
Northeastward.

Fiona Has Turned A Little More And Is Now Moving 335/15. There Is
No Change In Synoptic Reasoning With The Cyclone Moving Around A
Subtropical Anticyclone. The Storm Should Turn Toward The North...
Then Northeast As It Starts To Move Into The Mid-Latitudes. The
Models Are Generally Slower Than The Previous Cycle...But Since
The Cyclone Continues Speeding Along...The Nhc Forecast Will Stay
On The Faster Side Of The Guidance Envelope...With Little Change To
The Track. There Is Reasonable Agreement That Fiona Will Be Close
To Bermuda In 36-48 Hours.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 02/2100z 25.6n 66.4w 45 Kt
12hr Vt 03/0600z 27.5n 66.8w 45 Kt
24hr Vt 03/1800z 29.7n 66.4w 45 Kt
36hr Vt 04/0600z 31.7n 65.4w 40 Kt
48hr Vt 04/1800z 33.7n 64.1w 35 Kt
72hr Vt 05/1800z 38.0n 61.0w 25 Kt...Dissipating
96hr Vt 06/1800z...Dissipated

Forecaster Blake/Brown


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