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Weather AL/FL/GA Discussion Sep 2 Afternoon

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl
250 Pm Edt Thu Sep 2 2010

.Synopsis...On The Synoptic Scale...We Continue To See A Weak Upper
Low Over The Gulf Of Mexico. Along Wave Trough Continues To Make
Good Progress Across The Nrn Plains And Upper Midwest. Major
Hurricane Earl Has Weakened Somewhat This Afternoon...But Is Still A
Formidable Storm. The Motion Is Nwd And As The Trough Approaches...
We Should See The Predicted Turn To The Ne Late Tonight. At This
Time...The Closest Approach To Land In The U.S. Appears To Be
Nantucket Island Ma Fri Night. Surface Analysis Shows A Frontal
System Moving Across The Nrn And Central Plains With High Pressure
To The Se Of That From The Mid Atlantic States Swwd To The Gulf
Coast States. Satellite Pictures Shows A Cu Field Has Developed Over
Most Of The Fl Big Bend And Across Our Wrn Zones With Clear Skies
Holding On Across Our Ga Zones And Poking Into The Wrn Big Bend. It
Is This Small Area In Nw Fl...Extending Wwd Into Jackson County That
Stands The Best Chance Of Seeing Red Flag Conditions Today. In
Fact...Mai Has Already Met Criteria When High Dispersion Indices Are
Taken Into Account.

.Short Term...Tonight Through Sat Night.
With The Dry Air In Place...Another Comfortably Cool Night Is On Tap
For The Forecast Area. Most Inland Areas Will Get Down Into The Mid
60s With A Few Of The Normally Cooler Spots Seeing Lower 60s.
Coastal Areas Will Be Within A Couple Degrees Either Side Of 70. Fri
Will Be A Hot Day But With Continued Low Humidity. Most Inland Areas
Will Reach The Mid 90s. As The Long Wave Trough Sweeps Ewd...It Will Drive The Cold Front Sewd To The Ne Gulf Coast By Sat. Moisture Will Begin To Increase Ahead Of The Front Fri Night And This Will Keep Min Temps From Dropping Out Of The Lower 70s Across Nw Fl With Upper 60s To The N. It Now Appears That Sufficient Moisture And
Instability Will Be In Place To Warrant A Slight Chance Pop For Ts
In Areas That See Frontal Passage During The Afternoon Sat. That
Will Include Most Of Our Fl Zones And The Ga Zones That Border Fl.
The Se Big Bend Will See Slightly Higher Pops. Dew Points Will Be
Back Around 70 In Fl And With Max Temps In The Lower 90s...Heat
Indices Will Reach The Mid To Upper 90s. As The Front Pushes S Sat
Night...Temps Will Drop Once Again Into The Lower 60s Across The Nrn
Tier Of Zones And Into The Mid To Upper 60s Across Inland Nw Fl.

.Long Term...Sun Through Next Thu.
Mainly Dry Weather Will Likely Continue Into The Extended Period.
High Pressure Will Build Into The Southeast U.S. By Sunday And Usher
In Plenty Of Dry Air. This Pattern Will Likely Persist Through Next
Thursday With Easterly Flow. Rain Chances Will Remain At 20 Percent
Or Less Through The Period. Highs Are Expected To Be In The Low To
Mid 90s Through The Period With Lows In The Low To Mid 60s Across
Most Areas Saturday Night Through Monday Night. Lows Then Warm Back To The Upper 60s To Low 70s For Tuesday Night And Wednesday Night.

.Marine...Tonight Through Tue.
A Weak Pressure Gradient Will Remain In Place Over The Next Several
Days Keeping Winds Aob 10 Kt And Seas Aob 2 Ft. By The End Of The
Forecast Period Mon Night...High Pressure Will Build N Of The Waters
And Set Up Another Ely Flow Regime. A Nocturnal Surge Could Brings
Winds Into The Exercise Caution Range At That Time.

.Aviation...Through 18z Fri.
Vfr Conditions Will Prevail This Afternoon With The Established Cu
Field Diminishing After Sunset. Expect Another Round Of Patchy Mvfr
Vsbys Around Sunrise In The Morning At All Sites...With The Most
Likely Areas Of Restriction Being At Dhn/Aby/Vld. Any Restrictions
Will Improve After 13z With Vfr Conditions The Remainder Of The
Period.

.Fire Weather...The Airmass Has Not Gotten Quite As Dry As
Anticipated This Afternoon...So Have Trimmed Back The Red Flag
Warning Area In North Florida To Match Observational Trends. With
Continued Uncertainties With Respect To Rh Duration And Dispersion
On Friday...Will Leave Inherited Fire Weather Watch As Is. With A
Cold Front Across The Region On Saturday...Do Not Expect Any
Concerns Then. Much Drier Air Moves In Behind The Front For
Sunday...So Red Flag Concerns Look To Be More Of A Problem Sunday
Into The First Of The Upcoming Week.

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Tallahassee 65 95 71 93 69 / 00 00 05 20 10
Panama City Nw 71 96 74 92 69 / 00 00 05 20 10
Dothan 67 96 69 91 63 / 00 00 05 10 05
Albany 65 95 69 90 62 / 00 00 05 10 05
Valdosta 62 95 70 91 66 / 00 00 05 20 10
Cross City 66 92 72 90 70 / 00 00 10 30 20
Apalachicola 68 90 73 88 71 / 00 00 05 20 10

.Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Al...None.
Ga...None.
Fl...Red Flag Warning Until 7 Pm Edt /6 Pm Cdt/ This Evening
Through This Evening For The Following Zones: Calhoun...
Gadsden...Jackson...Liberty.

Fire Weather Watch From Friday Afternoon Through Friday Evening
For The Following Zones: Calhoun...Gadsden...Holmes...Inland
Bay...Inland Jefferson...Inland Walton...Jackson...Leon...
Liberty...Madison...Washington.


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