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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE.
THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THE SURFACE AND A MID LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. WITH THIS TROF EXPECTED TO ADVANCE OFF THE EAST COAST
AND BE REPLACED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LEFT IN A
NEARLY STATIONARY STATE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SEPARATE A VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO THE NORTH FROM A MUCH
MORE TROPICAL ONE TO THE SOUTH. THUS...WILL SHOW A TIGHT POP
GRADIENT NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. BY THE FIRST OF THE
WEEK...MODEL SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO DIVERGE. THE LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE GFS SHOW RIDGING BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH RESULTS IN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING DRIVEN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION PROVIDING
THE FIRST REAL AIRMASS CHANGE IN SOME TIME. THE 23/00-12Z EURO RUNS
PREFERRED A MORE MOIST APPROACH LEAVING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF AND DEVELOPING A DISTURBANCE OFF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE 24/00Z EURO LOOKS TO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE 24/00Z GFS...THOUGH IT STILL TRIES TO DEVELOP A
WEAK DISTURBANCE JUST EAST OF JACKSONVILLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN
THAT THE EURO MIGHT BE CONVERGING CLOSER TO A DRIER GFS
SOLUTION...WILL OPT FOR A FORECAST SOLUTION THAT IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS FOR THIS PACKAGE. THIS ALSO KEEPS
REASONABLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST
PACKAGE.


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