Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU.
NOW THAT THE UPPER LOW CENTER HAS MADE IT TO VA...IT WILL MAKE
LITTLE FURTHER SWD PROGRESS. BY TONIGHT...IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WHICH WILL KICK IT NEWD AWAY FROM
THE E COAST ON WED. THE KICKER SYSTEM WILL THEN AMPLIFY INTO THE ERN
U.S. FROM THU INTO FRI. THE PRIMARY FORECAST DILEMMA OVER THE SHORT
TERM IS HOW FAR SE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL GET. AT THIS TIME...THERE
APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A WEAK WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT NEAR OR S OF CSG AND THEN DRIFT SWWD. THIS
WOULD ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO MAKE FURTHER SWD PROGRESS OVER
AL...THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND POINTS W. HOWEVER...MOST OF OUR ERN
ZONES IN GA AND THE FL BIG BEND WILL NOT BE SO LUCKY. WE WILL
THEREFORE CONTINUE TO SEE LOWER POPS NW AND HIGHER POPS SE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT A RESPITE FROM THE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST ONLY N
AND W OF THE FLINT RIVER IN SW GA AND I-10 IN THE FL PANHANDLE. FOR
TODAY...SILENT 10 POPS N AND W OF AN ABY-DHN LINE WILL EDGE UP TO
LOW CHANCE IN THE TLH-VLD CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE UP FROM THERE TO LOW
END LIKELY FOR DIXIE COUNTY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS ALL BUT THE SE BIG BEND TODAY. HOWEVER...HEAT INDICES WILL BE
HELD BELOW 105 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. MEAN LAYER CAPES WILL BE IN
THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE S OF THE FRONT WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SURFACE DELTA THETA-E VALUES WILL BE UP AROUND 35 K OVER
TLH...SO SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FL BIG BEND. FOR WED...WE EDGED POPS UP EVER SO
SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WWD POSITION OF SURFACE LOW
POSSIBLY PULLING A BIT MORE MOISTURE NWWD. THIS SUBTLE TREND WAS
THEN CONTINUED INTO THU BY WHICH TIME POPS WILL ESSENTIALLY BE BACK
TO CLIMO FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.


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