Southeast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE A WHILE...AN IMPRESSIVE
BATCH OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS HEADING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
CWA...AND HAS ALREADY MADE SIGNIFICANT INROADS TO OUR NORTH EARLIER
THIS MORNING. AS WAS DESCRIBED EARLIER...THE BIRMINGHAM AL (BMX) 12
UTC SOUNDING ON SUNDAY HAD A PWAT OF 2.34"...AND IN JUST 24 HRS OF
TIME...IT HAD ALREADY LOST A FULL INCH OF AVAILABLE WATER...AND HAS
DROPPED TO A VERY LOW 1.33". AN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE DRYING TREND
WAS OBSERVED AT ATLANTA (FFC) WHERE THEIR PWAT PLUNGED FROM 2.10" ON
12 UTC SUNDAY...TO A BONE DRY 0.96" 12 UTC TODAY. THIS DRY AIR HAS
NOT YET MADE IT SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE
JUST YET...WHERE WE MODIFIED THIS MORNING`S 12 UTC TALLAHASSEE (TAE)
SOUNDING TO T=96, TD=74 TO GET A PWAT= 2.40", A CAPE= 3534 J/KG, AND
AN LI= -6.4. SINCE WE DO NOT HAVE ANY ACTUAL SOUNDINGS THAT ARE
LAUNCHED BETWEEN BMX...FFC...AND TLH...OUR BEST BET TO SHOW THE
NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT AND THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS THROUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF A TEMPORAL LAG IN RECEIVING THE PWAT
IMAGER PASSES...THE NW TO SE PWAT GRADIENT IS VERY EVIDENT BETWEEN
THE ACTUAL RAOB SITES...AND IT IS CONTINUING TO SHOW INCREASING
SOUTHEASTWARD PENETRATION OF THE SUB 2 INCH VALUES INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...WE STILL EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT OVER THE SE FL BIG BEND...AS WELL AS SE
SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...WHERE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. IN THE INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR
TO THE NW...EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION...AND THE
INSTABILITY MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO ONLY SUPPORT SHOWERS IN SOME OF
THESE LOCATIONS


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