Short Term Forecast

By: NWS
By: NWS

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED.
THE UPPER LOW IN NY STATE WILL DROP SWD TO VA BY TUE MORNING AND
THEN SPILL IN PLACE WHILE GRADUALLY FILLING. THIS LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY GET KICKED NEWD BY THE UPSTREAM TROUGH ONCE IT ROUNDS THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE ON WED. IN THE MEAN TIME...THIS TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE E COAST WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINA COAST AND ALLOW IT TO EDGE SWD
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE A SUBSTANTIAL REDUCTION IN POP AND SOMEWHAT LOWER DEW
POINTS...ESPECIALLY BY TUE AND WED. UNFORTUNATELY...THE BOUNDARY
DOES NOT LOOK AS IF IT WILL EVER MAKE IT TO THE GULF COAST...SO MOST
OF OUR FL ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN
SE AL RISING TO LIKELY FOR THE ERN FL BIG BEND. WITH MLCAPE UP
AROUND 3000 J/KG AND SURFACE DELTA THETA-E AROUND 25 KT...A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WET
MICROBURSTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE BIG BEND...THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 90S IN TLH AND
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM ABY TO PFN
AND POINTS W. DEW POINTS MAY ACTUALLY GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER PARTS OF SE AL AND ADJACENT AREAS IN SW GA AND THE INLAND FL
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...MID 70S DEW POINTS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF OUR
FL ZONES WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEW POINTS NEAR THE COAST. THIS
WILL MEAN ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT INDICES AROUND 110 DEGREES TODAY FOR
THE PANHANDLE COASTAL ZONES AND WE HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA. WHILE AREAS FURTHER INLAND WILL NOT MAKE TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA...IT WILL STILL BE UNCOMFORTABLY HOT AND HUMID WITH MAX
HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES.

BY TUE...THE DRIER AIR WILL MAKE A BIT MORE PROGRESS TO THE SE WITH
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POP CONTINUING. AREAS N OF AN ABY-DHN LINE ARE
NOT FORECAST TO SEE ANY CONVECTION. S OF THAT LINE... POPS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 40 FOR THE FL BIG BEND FROM TLH S AND E WITH 50
FOR THE SERN BIG BEND. ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS SERN
AREA...THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S
WITH A FEW OF THE HOT SPOTS IN SW GA...SE AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S ONCE AGAIN. HEAT INDICES OF 105 OR BETTER
CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...
ROUGHLY FROM U.S. ROUTE 84 SWD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST
WRF RUN SHOWS EVEN LESS CONVECTION THAN DEPICTED IN THIS FORECAST...
SO FUTURE FORECASTS MAY TREND DOWNWARD FOR TUE. BY WED...THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST LAYER WILL BE EVEN SHALLOWER SO WE CAPPED POPS AT 20 FOR
MOST AREAS.


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