Since Danielle’s inception, forecasts have taken her path into the open Atlantic – first NW, then WNW then NW and finally to the north, just east of Bermuda during the upcoming weekend of August 28-29.
However, there is a slight chance over the next several days the steering pattern for Danielle could change. If so, the risk could increase for the US Atlantic coast, but for now the path outlined above is by far the best bet. Still, Danielle looms as a significant threat to Bermuda.
The next question is how strong does Danielle become? The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will be the first to tell you their guidance to gauge the potential for rapid storm intensification has not kept progress with the ability to predict storm direction.
Currently, the NHC believes Danielle will not become a hurricane until late Tuesday afternoon. If Danielle strengthens rapidly before then (and it does have a 24-36 hour window as shear relaxes), then a stronger Danielle may carve a different path. Research has shown strong hurricanes affect their surrounding environment as much as that same environment affects the hurricane.
As you can see, too many “ifs” to give a solid answer, but for the next few days, Danielle is the only tropical threat to watch. Later in the week, we will talk about the hurricane season’s remaining potential.