Aug 22 Morning Weather Discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 AM EDT SUN AUG 22 2010

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS AND 12Z EURO ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY WITH A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER NEW YORK BY TONIGHT. THIS LOW
DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND CENTERS OVER OR NEAR THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY FURTHER AMPLIFYING THE EAST COAST TROUGH WITH
ITS AXIS JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. THE RESULTING DEEP LAYER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL DRIVE AWAY A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH FORECAST PW`S FINALLY DROPPING
BELOW 2.0". THE GFS SHOWS PW VALUES FOR TALLAHASSEE (TLH) GENERALLY
IN THE 1.2" TO 1.5" FROM 12Z MON THROUGH 00Z WED. IF THIS VERIFIES
...MONDAY WILL BREAK A STRING OF 23 STRAIGHT DAYS WHERE THE PW AT
TLH WAS ABOVE 2.0"

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS
CENTRAL GA AND NORTHERN AL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM NEAR THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE FIRST MENTIONED BOUNDARY SHOULD GET NUDGED A BIT
FURTHER SOUTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA.
THEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS...THE SECOND MENTIONED FRONT WILL
DRIVE ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN AL/GA ON MONDAY AND THEN STALL OVER
OF JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOOK FOR ONE MORE ACTIVE DAY TODAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION BY AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WALTON
BEACH TO VALDOSTA AND ONLY SLIGHT POPS ELSEWHERE. THEN ON TUESDAY
TRIMMED BACK POPS EVEN FURTHER TO SHOW SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SAME MENTIONED REFERENCE POINTS AND SILENT
10% POP ELSEWHERE. ALONG WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AND DIMINISHED
RAIN CHANCES COME A RETURN OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO
THE UPPER 90S AT SOME INLAND LOCATIONS. FORTUNATELY THE LATEST
COMPUTED HEAT INDICES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH ADVISORY LEVELS BUT
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. MOST INLAND AREAS WILL SEE HEAT
INDICES IN THE 102 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
THE LARGE SCALE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS IN THE AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM
WITH RIDGING FROM PAC NW EWD TO CNTRL PLAINS...TROUGH OVER NRN GREAT
LAKES AND ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SWD FROM NY ESE TO ALONG ATLC COAST
OF GA WITH 577DM LOW OVER DE FOLLOWED BY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WRN
ATLC. SRN STREAM SHOWS RIDGING FROM HIGH NV/UT BORDER SEWD TO VCNTY
APALACHICOLA. LOOKING SWD...587DM LOW OVER WRN GULF. ALL THIS LEAVES
MUCH OF CWA IN WEAKNESS TO EAST OF RIDGE AND S OF ERN TROUGH.
HOWEVER THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES. ERN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE ON WED AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEING
ABSORBED BY UPSTREAM TROUGH BY THURS. LATEST MODELS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN DRYING OUT LOCAL ATMOSPHERE. BY FRI...TROUGH NOW
OFFSHORE ALLOWING UPSTREAM RIDGE TO SPREAD ESE (WITH NWLY STEERING
FLOW) AND BUILD DOWN EAST COAST AND INTO CARIB AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
FROM NW-SE. AND...FORMER WRN GULF LOW PROGGED TO LIFT NEWD ALONG
GULF COAST PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF MOISTURE APPEARS ONLY
BEGINS TO IMPACT SRN CWA ON SAT.

AT SURFACE...PERIOD BEGINS WITH CLOSED LOW IN WRN ATLC JUST
OFF N ENGLAND WITH TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWWD INTO CNTRL AL/GA.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FRONT SWWD ACROSS MARINE AREA.
INITIAL POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH ALLOWS FRONT TO DROP SWD IN NRN
GULF WATERS ON WED. THEN AS UPPER TROUGH AND THEN CLOSED LOW LIFTS
NEWD...FRONT STALLS OVER WATERS WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING SWD IN ITS
WAKE. THIS DIFFERENT FROM 24HRS AGO...MODELS FORMALLY HINTED AT
DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE FORMING ALONG REMNANTS OF COLD FRONT/SHEAR
ZONE IN WRN GULF AND MOVING NEWD ADVECTING MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS
LOCAL AREA. LATEST GFS AND NAM NOW SHOW WAVE REMAINING WEST OF CWA
WITH SUPPRESSED PATTERN OVER CWA. IF WAVE MOVES NEWD INTO CWA...IT
WONT BE UNTIL SAT OR BEYOND. SO WITH MID-UPPER RIDGE DOMINANT...THEN
A TRANSITION INTO A NLY STEERING FLOW WITH SHALLOW SEA BREEZE
FOCUSED ALONG FL COAST. OF COURSE THIS PATTERN IMPLIES INCREASING
TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL POPS...WITH RAIN STARTING AND ENDING LATER
INTO NIGHT AND INCREASED CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS.

WITH A NOTICEABLY DRIER PATTERN THAN PREV RUN...PREVIOUS POPS WILL
BE LOWERED AND TEMPS INCREASED. NOW WDLY SCT TO LOW SCT DAYTIME POPS
UNTIL SAT AFTN...THEN SCT POPS. WITH ABSENCE OF FRONTAL CLOUDS...
MINIMUM TEMPS WILL NOW DROP TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (INLAND
CLIMO AROUND 69). CONVERSELY...HIGHS WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO
(CLIMO IS 90 DEGREES). EXPECT MID 90S INLAND WED THRU FRI DROPPING
TO LOW 90S ON SAT. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE 103 TO
106 DEGREE RANGE WED AND THURS LOWERING TO AROUND 100 DEGREES FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS ON MONDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 06Z MON
DURING THE REST OF OVERNIGHT...CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR VIS/CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS TIL 13Z. THE WORST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KABY AND KVLD WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WHERE
BRIEF IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY. SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18
UTC WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN OR STORMS. AFT
00Z MON VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL TO OUR NORTH... AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO MAKE A CLEAN PASSAGE
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WE MAY SEE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 95 75 97 75 98/ 60 20 30 20 20
PANAMA CITY 93 79 95 79 96/ 60 20 30 10 20
DOTHAN 96 74 98 75 96/ 60 20 20 10 10
ALBANY 96 75 97 75 98/ 60 20 20 10 10
VALDOSTA 96 74 96 74 96/ 60 30 30 20 20
CROSS CITY 95 76 93 75 93/ 60 40 50 30 30
APALACHICOLA 92 77 93 77 93/ 60 20 40 20 20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.


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