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Aug 21 Morning Area Weather Outlook

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
315 AM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE REMNANT LOW OF TD 5
HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND IS INTERACTING WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN THE VICINITY TO ACTIVATE A FEW SHOWERS
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA THIS SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTH OF THESE
FEATURES...THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AND WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE SHOWING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE REGION TODAY DESPITE THE LESS FAVORABLE W/NW SEA-BREEZE
REGIME FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AN UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS A SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND LAY OUT EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF OUR FA ON
MONDAY. WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA
(FORECAST AFTERNOON PW`S 2.30" - 2.60") ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND ABOVE MENTIONED LIFTING MECHANISMS LOOK FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE CLIMO.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE LARGE SCALE LONG
TERM PERIOD BEGINS IN THE NRN STREAM WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER PAC
NW...TROUGHING EWD THRU PLAINS...THEN AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACROSS GREAT
LAKES FOLLOWED BY DEEP TROUGH FROM SRN CANADIAN MARITIMES SWD TO GA
WITH 575DM LOW CLOSING OFF OVER PENN. SRN STREAM SHOWS FLAT FLOW
FROM CA EWD TO FL WITH PERSISTENT MEAN H5 HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
US. THE ERN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY WED
AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
SPREAD EWD AND BUILD DOWN EAST COAST AS DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO WORK
IN FROM NW-SE. FAVORED MODEL SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ABOVE 850MB WED THRU SAT.

AT SURFACE...PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW IN WRN ATLC JUST OFF PENN/DE
WITH TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWWD TO JUST N OF CWA. INITIAL
POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH ALLOWS FRONT TO SAG SWD TO THE FL/GA BORDER
WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BUT BY TUES
NIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES COMMENCE. ECMWF (SIMILAR TO UKMET/CANADIAN)
STILL DEVELOPS A LOW OVER NE GULF BY 12Z TUES WHICH THEN RIDES NEWD
ALONG FRONT KICKING FRONT SWD TO THE MARINE AREA WITH MORE DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN. GFS HAD MORE OF A SHEAR ZONE FROM SE STATES TO ACROSS
GULF REGION WITH WAVE ALONG FRONT FURTHER N IN AL AT 12Z TUES THUS
SLOWING FRONT DOWN. THIS SCENARIO WOULD KEEP MOST CWA IN WARM
SECTOR WITH FRONTAL TROUGH/MOISTURE DRAPED ACROSS CWA. EITHER WAY...
BY FRI FRONT LIFTS BACK NWD AS SFC RIDGE OVER GULF BUILDS NWD OVER
REGION. THIS HERALDS A MORE TYPICAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN. FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS FAVORED ECMWF BUT
BECAUSE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE...CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY FOR DAYS
6-7 NOT HIGH.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE AMPLE DAILY CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXPERIENCED
WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. THEN...AS TROUGH LIFTS NEWD...A RETURN TO
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SEABREEZE INDUCED MID-SCT
POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. OF COURSE...IF FRONT LINGERS OVER CWA
PER GFS..POPS COULD BE HIGHER. WITH FRONTAL CLOUDS IN AREA...MINIMUM
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO (INLAND CLIMO AROUND 69) WITH LOWS
DROPPING FROM MID TO LOW 70S THRU PERIOD. HIGHS WILL PERSIST AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO (90 DEGREES) THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 06Z SUN...SOME LOW CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THRU 13Z AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR ECP. IFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH MVFR VSBY. LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY MID
MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA GETTING AN EARLY START AGAIN AT ECP AND TLH
BEFORE SPREADING NEWD. EXPECT MAIN THREATS FROM TSRA TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN ANY STORMS
OR HEAVY RAIN 18Z-22Z FL TERMINALS SHIFTING TO 20Z-24Z NRN
TERMINALS. AFT 22Z-24Z VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
WILL BE WESTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 2 FEET THIS WEEKEND AND
2 TO 3 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS AND NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 92 76 94 76 93/ 60 30 60 30 50
PANAMA CITY 91 78 92 78 92/ 60 30 60 30 50
DOTHAN 93 75 95 76 93/ 50 30 60 30 50
ALBANY 93 76 94 76 93/ 60 30 60 30 50
VALDOSTA 92 74 93 74 91/ 60 30 60 30 50
CROSS CITY 92 75 93 75 92/ 60 30 60 30 50
APALACHICOLA 92 78 91 78 91/ 60 30 60 30 50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.


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