Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THE OLD REMNANTS OF TD 5 CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH EASTERN
ALABAMA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA.
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE FLOW TURNS MORE W/NW ON SATURDAY WHICH IS
TYPICALLY A LESS FAVORABLE SEA-BREEZE REGIME FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TD 5 STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...WENT WITH
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH A TYPE 9 SEA-BREEZE
REGIME. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY OUR LOCALLY RUN CONFIDENCE GRIDS AS
WELL AS THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...BUT DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE CONFIDENCE GRIDS WOULD SUGGEST AND STAYED AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT
ACROSS THE AREA. A SIMILAR STORY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SO STAYED NEAR 50 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES. FOR TEMPERATURES...THE MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED A LITTLE
TOO WARM SHOWING MID 90S FOR SATURDAY AND EVEN A SMALL POCKET OF
100 DEGREE READINGS ON SUNDAY SOUTH OF ALBANY. INSTEAD...CHOSE TO
LEAN MORE TOWARDS A MET/NAM BIAS CORRECTED/GFS BIAS CORRECTED
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH PLACES HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY OVER
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.


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