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Aug 20 Afternoon Weather Outlook

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
341 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THE OLD REMNANTS OF TD 5 CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH EASTERN
ALABAMA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA.
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING ONLY TO REDEVELOP AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW TURNS MORE W/NW ON SATURDAY WHICH IS
TYPICALLY A LESS FAVORABLE SEA-BREEZE REGIME FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TD 5 STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...WENT WITH
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH A TYPE 9 SEA-BREEZE
REGIME. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY OUR LOCALLY RUN CONFIDENCE GRIDS AS
WELL AS THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...BUT DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE CONFIDENCE GRIDS WOULD SUGGEST AND STAYED AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT
ACROSS THE AREA. A SIMILAR STORY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SO STAYED NEAR 50 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES. FOR TEMPERATURES...THE MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED A LITTLE
TOO WARM SHOWING MID 90S FOR SATURDAY AND EVEN A SMALL POCKET OF
100 DEGREE READINGS ON SUNDAY SOUTH OF ALBANY. INSTEAD...CHOSE TO
LEAN MORE TOWARDS A MET/NAM BIAS CORRECTED/GFS BIAS CORRECTED
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH PLACES HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY OVER
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
BOTH THE 12Z EURO AND 00Z GFS SHOW AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS
NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT AND DROPPING SOUTH OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH
POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY MID WEEK AND LIFT RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE LOCAL REGION.
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE
FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN...A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ABOVE 850MB BEGINS
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVEL POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
THEN GRADUALLY TREND DOWN TO LOWER END CHANCE ACROSS THE CWA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND PUSH EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAIN THREATS FROM TSRA TO
BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. VSBYS MAY FALL TO IFR/LIFR
WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME LOW
CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR ECP. WHILE IT IS
NOT ANTICIPATED...ONE OR TWO SITES MAY SEE CIGS IN THE LIFR TO
AIRPORT MINIMUMS RANGE MUCH LIKE ABY AND DHN SAW EARLIER TODAY. LOW
CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA GETTING AN EARLY
START AGAIN TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR
SHORE AND 2 TO 3 FEET WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS AND NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 76 91 76 93 76 / 40 60 40 50 30
PANAMA CITY 77 90 78 91 78 / 30 50 30 40 30
DOTHAN 75 93 75 95 76 / 30 50 40 50 30
ALBANY 76 93 76 94 76 / 40 50 30 50 30
VALDOSTA 74 92 74 94 75 / 40 50 40 50 30
CROSS CITY 75 90 75 92 75 / 30 60 30 40 30
APALACHICOLA 79 90 79 91 79 / 30 50 30 40 30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE


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