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Short Term Forecast

By: NWS
By: NWS

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
TODAY...TYPE 4 (LIGHT WSW ) THE COMBINATION OF EWD MOVING REMNANTS
OF TD 5...LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND WEAK RIDGE TO OUR S HERALDS ACTIVE
SEA BREEZE REGIME FAVORING ERN PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. WRF 4KM MODEL
SHOWS MARINE CONVECTION BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE BY 16Z AND
SPREADING NEWD TO DOMINATE INLAND BIG BEND IN AFTN AND THEN S/CNTRL
GA LATE AFTN INTO EVE. WILL GO 70-80 PCT POPS. WITH HIGH PWATS...
WEAK STEERING FLOW...PASSING WEAK IMPULSES AND OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE
MERGERS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A GOOD BET. WITH MOIST SOUNDING PROFILE
...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WARM H5 TEMPS...LOW CHC OF SEVERE WX AS
REFLECTED IN LOCAL CONFIDENCE TOOL. BUT...ANY MERGERS CAN GENERATE
STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE PULSE STORMS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AT 102 TO 104 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...30-40 PCT SW-NE POP GRADIENT. LOWS IN MID 70S.

SATURDAY...TYPE 4 (LIGHT WLY) SEABREEZE FAVORS FL COASTAL COUNTIES.
SINKING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE ADDED LIFT FOR NRN COUNTIES.
ALSO WEAK PVA FROM UPPER REMNANTS OF TD 5. 60-70 POP GRADIENT. HIGHS
IN LOW TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...TYPE 4 (VERY LIGHT WLY) SEABREEZE FAVORS FL COASTAL
COUNTIES AND SUPPRESSES NRN COUNTIES BUT THIS OFFSET BY APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 50 PCT POPS ACROSS BOARD. HIGHS IN LOW TO MID 90S.


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