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Aug 19 Extended Forecast Technical Discussion

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
202 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 22 2010 - 12Z THU AUG 26 2010

PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS ACCOMPANYING 50 MEMBER
ENSEMBLE MEAN TO UPDATE THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3
THROUGH 7. ALL IN ALL...THE VARIOUS MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD...SHOWING A SUBSTANTIAL FULL
LATITUDE COLD FRONT KNIFING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND A
CLOSED...STACKED...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HOLDING ITS GROUND...OR
SHOULD SAY OCEAN SURFACE...OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
MERIDIONAL FLOW HAS A DISTINCT POSITIVE TILT ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES...WHICH ALLOWS THE ATLANTIC TROUGH TO JUST SLOWLY SHEAR
APART IN PLACE...OR DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. THE ECENS MEAN
IS STILL PERFORMING STRONGLY ENOUGH AT THE DAY 6 TO 7 TIME RANGE
TO RELY ON ITS VERSION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE OTHER GUIDANCE.

FINAL...

NO SURPRISES WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE...WITH THE PATTERN ILLUSTRATED
BY THE UPDATED MANUAL PROGS STILL SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE VARIOUS CENTERS.
COORDINATED THE LOW DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WITH TPC DURING THE MIDDAY CALL...AS SUCH CIRCULATIONS
BREAKING OFF FRONTAL ZONES DO BECOME TROPICAL FROM TIME TO TIME.
HOW FAR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THE SYNOPTIC LOW ENDS UP
FORMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT HAVE THE POWER OF THE HIGHLY
RESOLVED ECENS MEAN MEMBERS TO BACK UP THE FINAL MANUAL DEPICTION.


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