Aug 19 Area Weather Outlook

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
312 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND
AN APPROACHING SFC TROUGH WILL ACT TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AS WELL
THROUGH SUNDAY.

ALOFT...THE WEAK RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BREAK DOWN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE MID-
LEVEL REMNANTS OF T.D. 5 WHICH IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND HELP PUSH A BROAD SFC TROUGH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GA/AL. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH THE CURRENT MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WILL YIELD LIKELY DAYTIME POPS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL COVERAGE...MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE LOCAL REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
CWA. THE GFS DEVELOPS A WAVE ON OR NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF MONDAY AND DRIFTS IT WESTWARD OVER LA ON TUESDAY.
THIS LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE JUST SAW WITH THE REMNANT LOW
OF TD 5. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN
PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY AND PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA-BREEZE INTERACTION WITH
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN ABOVE SEASONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH MONDAY. IF THE GFS SOLUTION
VERIFIES AND THE SURFACE LOW PULLS FURTHER WEST ON TUESDAY WE MAY
SEE CONVECTION TRENDING BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS (40%) TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS CLOSE TO SUNRISE WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT KVLD WHERE IFR IS
SHOWN. FOR FRIDAY...SHRA MAY GET OFF TO AN EARLY START AGAIN AFTER
SUNRISE OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS AROUND KECP AND KDHN WITH
SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPING AND SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SOUTH BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SFC TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH MAY PUSH
WINDS TO NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 76 92 75 92 75 / 40 70 40 70 30
PANAMA CITY 78 89 78 89 78 / 30 60 30 60 30
DOTHAN 75 92 75 91 75 / 40 70 40 60 40
ALBANY 76 93 76 93 75 / 40 60 30 60 30
VALDOSTA 75 92 75 92 74 / 40 60 30 60 30
CROSS CITY 75 91 76 90 75 / 30 50 30 50 30
APALACHICOLA 78 89 79 88 79 / 30 50 30 50 30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.


WTVY-TV 285 N Foster Street Dothan, AL 36303 334-792-3195
Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 101102584 - wtvy.com/a?a=101102584
Gray Television, Inc.