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Aug 19 Afternoon Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH


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