Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHICH
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE LOCAL REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A WAVE ON OR NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEAST GULF MONDAY
AND DRIFTS IT WESTWARD OVER LA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS VERY SIMILAR
TO WHAT WE JUST SAW WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF TD 5. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY
AND PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND SEA-BREEZE INTERACTION WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN
ABOVE SEASONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH MONDAY.
IF THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES AND THE SURFACE LOW PULLS FURTHER WEST
ON TUESDAY WE MAY SEE CONVECTION TRENDING BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS (40%) TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S AND MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.


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