Short Term Forecast

By: NWS
By: NWS

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
TODAY...TYPE 5 (MDT S/SW) SEA BREEZE FAVORS FL. MAV/NAM WILL POPS IN
30-50 PCT RANGE BUT WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL GO WITH UPPER RANGE
OF POPS (50-60 PCT). LIKE YESTERDAY...WRF 4KM MODEL SHOWS GULF
SEABREEZE INDUCED PANHANDLE MARINE PRECIP MOVING NEWD ACROSS COASTAL
COUNTIES AFTER SUNRISE...SPREADING NEWD AND FILLING IN THRU AFTN
FOCUSING IN BIG BEND/ERN GA COUNTIES BY SUNDOWN. GULF SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
WITH WARM H5 TEMPS AND MODEST LAPSE RATES...LOCAL CONFIDENCE TOOL
SHOWS ONLY 3-6 PCT CHC OF SEVERE WX WITH FOCUS LATE AFTN/EVE OR TIME
OF MAX HEATING AND ACROSS S/CNTRL GA ZONES. AGAIN...RELATIVELY LIGHT
STEERING FLOW TRANSLATES TO ENHANCED CHANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IN ANY STRONG STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S..HEAT INDICES
TOPPING OUT AT 106 TO 108 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...20-30 PCT MAINLY EVE AND ERN ZONES POPS. LOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE WITH SREF PROGS FAVORING SE
ALA/SW GA AND ADJACENT PANHANDLE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN GRIDS.

FRIDAY...TYPE 4 (LGT-MDT WSW) SEA BREEZE FAVORS FL BUT FRONT
BEGINNING TO EDGE CLOSER TO CWA NRN MOST COUNTIES OF AL/SW GA WILL
BEGIN TO BE IMPACTED. ALSO SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER MS VALLEY WILL
BRUSH NRN CWA DURING DAY PROVIDING ADDED DYNAMICS. GENERALLY 50 PCT
POPS. STILL ONLY 3-7 PCT CHC OF SEVERE WX. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
90S...HEAT INDICES MAX 106 TO 108.

SATURDAY...TYPE 4 (LGT-MDT WLY) SEA BREEZE NORMALLY SUPPRESSES
PRECIP. HOWEVER A WEAKNESS ALOFT WITH RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE PLUS
THE PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
LIFT/FOCUS. GENERALLY 50 PCT POPS. HIGHS IN THE LOWS 90S...HEAT
INDICES TOPPING OUT AT 104 TO 106.


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