Area Weather Outlook Aug 18

By: NWS Tallahassee
By: NWS Tallahassee

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
355 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2010

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
TO THE NE AT 10 TO 15 KTS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN STRONGER STORMS. MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS
APPEAR TO BE PRODUCING BETWEEN .5 AND 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN. CU
FIELD ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND IN SERN
GA UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STRUGGLED TO REACH THE MID 90S BEFORE THE
RAIN PUSHED THROUGH. AREAS NOT YET RECEIVING RAIN IN SWRN GA MAY
HAVE A CHANCE TO PEAK UP AROUND 96 DEGREES...BUT AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS DOUBTFUL AS THE RAIN IS FAST APPROACHING THAT PORTION OF THE
STATE. HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 101 AND
107 DEGREES THUS FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...KEEPING THE POP AND TEMP PATTERN RELATIVELY
SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS THIS EVENING AND THURS EVENING
WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 70S INLAND...UPPER 70S ALONG THE FL
COASTLINE. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL STRUGGLE ONCE AGAIN TO HIT MID TO LOW 90S
IN FL AND SERN AL DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH
THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS IN SWRN GA SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO
REACH THE MID 90S ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE RAIN
MOVES THROUGH. WITH SW FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO SEA BREEZE
CLIMO...WITH AFTERNOON POPS ON BOTH DAYS BEING A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN SEA BREEZE CLIMO IN SWRN GA AND SERN GA.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z GFS INDICATE AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE
TIME. HOWEVER...THE EURO SHOWS THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RETROGRADING AND MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION TRACKS BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LOW
OUT INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. EITHER WAY...BOTH SOLUTIONS DRIVE A
SURFACE FRONT DOWN INTO OUR CWA. THE GFS DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE
FRONT IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND SLOWLY
DRIFTS SOUTH THEN WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COUPLED WITH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE... DAYTIME HEATING AND DECENT SHORT WAVE ENERGY
OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP US IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. LOOK
FOR ABOVE SEASONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST UNDER CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING GENERALLY MVFR
VSBYS CLOSE TO SUNRISE FOR MOST TERMINALS AS WELL AS SOME LOWER
CIGS. SOME OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHICH TERMINALS SEE RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY WENT WITH MVFR VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE WITH
SCT-BKN007 CLOUDS. KECP MAY SEE AN EARLY START TO SCATTERED SHRA
ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY MORNING LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NERN GULF
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY S/SW
FLOW WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN BY SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
MORNING WITH MODERATE TO CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR THE NEXT WEEK
AT LEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 76 93 77 93 77 / 30 60 20 50 20
PANAMA CITY 78 91 79 91 79 / 30 50 30 50 20
DOTHAN 75 93 75 93 75 / 30 60 30 50 30
ALBANY 75 95 76 94 76 / 40 50 30 40 30
VALDOSTA 75 94 75 93 76 / 40 60 20 50 30
CROSS CITY 76 93 75 92 76 / 30 50 20 50 20
APALACHICOLA 80 90 79 91 80 / 30 40 20 40 20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

GA...NONE.

FL...NONE.

GM...NONE.

&&


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