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Short Term Weather

By: NWS
By: NWS

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING LOCAL REGION...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
ONSHORE WITH HIGH PWATS. THE 00Z KTAE SOUNDING CONTINUES THE TREND
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES. SO EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SEA BREEZE FOCUSED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THRU THURS BUT PERIODICALLY AIDED BY WEAK PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH AN UNSTABLE DAYTIME
ENVIRONMENT. THUS HIGH PWATS..PASSING IMPULSES AND WEAK STEERING
FLOW MEANS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WITH WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPS (AROUND -5C) AND MEAGER LAPSE RATES...CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS LOW.

SEABREEZE CLIMO FAVORS FL WITH BELOW CLIMO POPS AL/GA. BUT WILL GO
AT OR ABOVE CLIMO EVERYWHERE DUE TO IMPACT OF ABOVE SHORT WAVES ON
AL/GA. RAIN WILL DECREASE A LITTLE ON FRIDAY AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
EXITS EAST AND HIGH BUILDS IN ITS WAKE BUT WITH FRONT INCHING
TOWARDS NRN TIER COUNTIES WILL KEEP ABOVE CLIMO THERE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

TODAY...TYPE 7 (MODERATE SLY FLOW) SEABREEZE FAVORS FL WRN BIG BEND
AND ALL OF PANHANDLE. WRF 4KM RUN SHOWS PRECIP MOVING ONSHORE AFT
12Z ACROSS PANHANDLE AND SPREADING N/NE THRU AFTN INTO AL/GA AFTER
21Z AND LARGELY DISSIPATED BY 01Z THURS. WILL GO WITH 50-60PCT POPS.
WITH VERY WET PROFILE...LOCAL CONFIDENCE TOOL WITH ALMOST ZERO
CHANCE OF SEVERE WX. MAX TEMPS IN MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES SHOULD
TOP OUT AROUND 100 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH 30-40 PCT MAINLY EVE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS
ERN ZONES WITH LINGERING SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. SREF PROGS IMPLY
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY AL/FA COUNTIES AND WILL INCLUDE IN
GRIDS.

THURSDAY...TYPE 5 (MODERATE SSW FLOW) SEA BREEZE FAVORS FL ERN
PANHANDLE AND THE BIG BEND AWAY FROM COAST.50-60 PCT POPS. NIL
CHANCE OF SEVERE WX PER LOCAL CONFIDENCE TOOL. MAX HEAT INDICES
SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 105 DEGREES. PATCHY FOG LIKELY AGAIN LATE.

FRIDAY...UPPER ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT. BUT TYPE 4 (LIGHT-MDT SW
FLOW) SEABREEZE FAVORS ALL OF COASTAL FL BUT APPROACHING FRONT
(OUTFLOW CLASHES) FAVORS AL/GA. 40-50 PCT POPS. MAX HEAT INDICES
SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 105 DEGREES.


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