Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...LARGE SCALE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MEAN TROUGH POSITIONS ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. ONE
SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
ON SUNDAY. THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM. WILL BASICALLY USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EURO
WEIGHTED A BIT TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS...BASED ON
PAST PERFORMANCE AND THE TIME OF YEAR. THUS EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THIS WEEK TO PRODUCE DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...DRIVEN BY THE SEABREEZE AND STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH THE FRONT PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP POPS
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.


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