Southeast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

DISCUSSION...00 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. THE REMNANT
LOW OF TD5 WAS INTERACTING WITH THIS BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ARKLAMISS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO BE QUITE
HIGH...IN THE UPPER 70S THIS EVENING WITH A FEW COASTAL STATIONS
OCCASIONALLY REPORTING DEWPOINT VALUES OF 80 DEGREES OR BETTER.

UPPER AIR DATA FROM 00 UTC AND VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF
TD5 CREATING MORE CONVECTION BETWEEN THE BREAK IN THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES NOTED IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ARE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST.

THE KTAE SOUNDING FROM 00 UTC CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS 14
SOUNDINGS (NOW 15 IN A ROW) OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2
INCHES. THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING HAS SHOWN MORE MOISTENING BELOW
500 MB WITH DRYING INDICATED ABOVE 400 MB. STILL A GOOD BIT OF
INSTABILITY ANALYZED ON THE SOUNDING...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
STORMS JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

OF COURSE...THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTWARD MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. KVAX
RADAR SHOWS VERY LITTLE WESTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS IS NOT MAKING
MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESS...CONCERN ABOUT ANY WESTWARD PROPAGATING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REQUIRE A CONTINUATION OF POPS THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THAT SAID...WILL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
ONGOING POPS THIS EVENING TO SHOW SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA...WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION IS QUICKLY
COMING TO A END. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN NIGHTS WHERE THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INTO THE AREA...EXPECT TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO WILL KEEP
ELEVATED POPS THERE.


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