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Short Term Forecast

By: NWS
By: NWS

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL FEATURE A MORE TYPICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY...AS
THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED (AND BRIEF) SHOWERS CROSSING THE
PANHANDLE COAST...OUR REGION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
FIRST SEVERAL DAYLIGHT HOURS. HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND DEVELOPING FEEBLE SEA-BREEZES WILL BEGIN TO
BUBBLE UP A SCATTERING OF SHOWER AND STORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER LOUISIANA...WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL HOLD
RAIN CHANCES DOWN A BIT...AND HAVE THE LOWEST POPS/SHOWER COVERAGE
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA (AROUND 30%).
FURTHER EAST AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF TALLAHASSEE AND ALBANY POPS
INCREASE TO 45-50%. THESE ZONES BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
EVENTUAL COLLISION OF THE BIG BEND AND EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE FRONTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE EXPECT A BIT BETTER COVERAGE AFTER
3-4 PM OVER THESE EASTERN ZONES. WILL BE A WARM AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. HAVE
GENERALLY UNDERCUT THE MAV NUMBERS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS A WARM
BIAS HAS BEEN NOTED OF LATE IN THIS GUIDANCE SET. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPS AT AREA BEACHES BETWEEN 88 AND 90.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH 10-11
PM...GENERALLY OVER GEORGIA...AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG
BEND...BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY FOR OUR LAND ZONES. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS OF APALACHEE
BAY...AND OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
MAY THEN COME BACK TOWARD THE COAST AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...CLIMATOLOGY IS THE FORECAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE
A GENERALLY DRY MORNING (COULD STILL SEE A PASSING BRIEF SHOWER AT
THE COAST)...GIVING WAY TO A SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON STORMS. GRIDS
SHOW A WIDESPREAD 40-50% COVERAGE. WITH THE FLOW PATTERN...BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN AROUND
NOON AND 3-4PM...AND THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO AL/GA. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE RIGHT ABOUT AVERAGE WITH LOWER/MID 90S.

THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH IS TYPICALLY A WETTER SEA-BREEZE REGIME. HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO 55-65% AREA-WIDE WHICH IS NEAR CLIMO FOR THIS
PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THIS IS TYPICALLY A PATTERN IN WHICH MORE OF THE
AREA RECEIVES RAINFALL...THE SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY FAST MOVING AND
LIGHTER. THEREFORE...RAINFALL COVERAGE IS HIGH...BUT IT DOES NOT
RAIN FOR LONG...AND DOESN`T GENERALLY AMOUNT TO MUCH. THIS PATTERN
ALSO TENDS TO HAVE AN EARLIER START DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL SHOULD SHIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST AND INTO AL/GA
AFTER THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
RESULTING AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.


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