Short Term Forecast

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PANHANDLE COAST. AS OF EARLY THIS
MORNING...THIS FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN OVER WATER LONG AND IS NOT THAT
ORGANIZED. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THIS SYSTEM
WITH A MEDIUM (50%) CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WITH A STEADY WESTWARD MOTION FORECAST BY ALL
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS...HOPEFULLY ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT (IF ANY)
WILL OCCUR TO OUR WEST. THERE HAD BEEN SOME CONCERN THAT A FEW MORE
ORGANIZED BANDS OF CONVECTION MIGHT WRAP IN OUR COASTAL PANHANDLE
ZONES AS THE LOW ORGANIZED. WHILE THIS SCENARIO CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THE CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DECREASING...AND
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS ADVERTISE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
POTENTIAL TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. FORECAST STILL ANTICIPATES A
SCATTERING OF LESS ORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS TO ROTATE IN OFF THE
GULF...BUT OPTIMISTIC THAT WE WILL NOT SEE A WASHOUT OF A DAY. AWAY
FROM THE PANHANDLE COAST...LOWER CLOUDS BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...WITH A FEW SUNNY BREAKS THROUGH STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT THE
MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE WILL
PROMOTE A SCATTERING OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER/STORMS.
BEST COVERAGE (AROUND 60%) IS FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES. WILL KEEP RAINFALL COVERAGE IN THE CHANCE (40-50%)
RANGE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO KTLH AND KVLD...WHERE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH WRAPPING IN SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PANHANDLE COAST WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MS DELTA REGION. ALOFT...MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PULL TO THE WEST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE BACK FIRM CONTROL OF THE
REGION. LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS (MAINLY OVER GEORGIA/ALABAMA)
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD THEREAFTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND PANHANDLE COAST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
DEPARTING LOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PATTERN REVERTS BACK TO ONE MORE TYPICAL
OF LATE SUMMER...WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVERHEAD...AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDING BACK INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE LACKING AND HENCE WILL
KEEP A SCATTERING (CHANCE POPS) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
COASTAL ZONES DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND THEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FURTHER INLAND. HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S THROUGH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.


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