Aug 15 Early Area Weather Discussion

By: NWS Tallahassee
By: NWS Tallahassee

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. UNFORTUNATELY
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/VORTICITY MAX
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. THIS ENERGY WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED TODAY. THIS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE ABLE TO FEED OFF AN ATMOSPHERE THAT
REMAINS VERY MOIST. THE KTLH 15/00Z SOUNDING PROFILE ONCE AGAIN HAD
A PWAT VALUE OVER 2.4" OR AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...PERHAPS THE FIRST SIGNS THAT
FALL IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER AS THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW HAS DUG A
AMPLIFIED TROUGH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS
LOW IS EVER SO SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD. LOW LEVEL FOCUS
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE IS FORCING A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
STREAMING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
THESE TWO AREA TO BLOSSOM FURTHER IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO AND
BEYOND SUNRISE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...AND WILL BE HELD TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
TODAY...PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN EMPHASIS OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH
TOWARD THE PANHANDLE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURES...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
AREA. CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL DAY IN ANY ONE LOCATION...
BUT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE AROUND. ALREADY STARTING OUT THE
DAY WITH DECENT COVERAGE ON REGIONAL RADARS...AND THIS POINT IN THE
DIRECTION OF THINGS TO COME. CURRENT GRIDS SHOW LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
OF 70-75% OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. MAV POPS ARE ACTUALLY
EVEN HIGHER ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. POPS DROP DOWN TO THE CHANCE
40-50% CATEGORY TOWARD CROSS CITY...WHERE INFLUENCE FROM THE LOW
WILL BE MINIMIZED. BOTTOM LINE...ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD
INCLUDE PLANS FOR A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON BASICALLY WHEN AND HOW MUCH IT RAINS. HAVE GONE WITH
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 90...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE WETTER SPOTS ARE HELD IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

TONIGHT...PATTERN STARTS GETTING A BIT MORE INTERESTING. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND SURFACE LOW ARE PROGGED TO DRIFT OFFSHORE OF THE
PANHANDLE...AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE LOW WILL TRY TO GET A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED AS
THIS OCCURS...WHICH WILL ONLY ACT TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ZONES. INTO THE WESTERN FL BIG BEND...
INCLUDING THE TALLAHASSEE AREA...CURRENT GRIDS ARE SHOWING HIGH END
CHANCE POPS (50-55%) FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON JUST HOW
THIS LOW ORGANIZES...A FAVORABLE FLOW INTO APALACHEE BAY FOR MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS IS POSSIBLE. IN THIS EVENT...RAIN
CHANCES...AND CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE HIGHER.
WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY...BUT FOR NOW THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
ORGANIZED RAIN BANDS IS FROM GULF COUNTY WESTWARD. NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR...POPS DROP TO 30-40% FOR A SCATTERING OF LEFTOVER
SHOWERS.

MONDAY...MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE LOW MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...JUST
SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE COAST. MOST ORGANIZED RAINFALL AND HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE FL PANHANDLE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THIS ENERGY...AND WILL BE KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS (70-80%) IN THE GRIDS. FORECAST WILL TREND TO MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLE COAST. HAVE GONE WITH A GFS/SREF MEAN BLEND FOR LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTH AND TIMING (WIND SPEED/DIRECTION) ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. WILL CONTINUE THIS BLEND INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW
DEPARTS TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST.

TUESDAY...WITH THE LOW NOW WELL TO OUR WEST AND GIVING UP INFLUENCE
ON OUR REGION...WILL TREND THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY FOR
MID AUGUST. FORECAST WILL SHOW 40-50% RAIN CHANCES FOR MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S THROUGH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
IN THE WAKE OF REMNANT TD5 LOW...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WEEK. GFS
AN OUTLIER IN SHIFTING WHAT EVOLVES OUT OF TD5 ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS WEEK. THIS COULD KEEP FEED OF GREATER MID
LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM FARTHER WWD AND DISSIPATES INVOF THE
NWRN GULF COAST REGION. REGARDLESS...REGION WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST
WITH SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S EACH DAY.
APPEARS MID WEEK WILL SEE A LOWER POPS...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND THEN OFFSHORE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WILL APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS TODAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS IT TAKES UP A
POSITION OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST AND MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
DEPENDING ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW...A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY OR
EVEN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF APALACHICOLA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA
TOWARD LOUISIANA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS SETTLING
BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH WEAK LOW CENTER CONTINUING TO SAG SWD ALONG THE SERN AL/SWRN GA
BORDER REGION AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE TODAY... WILL MAINTAIN
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM FCST ACROSS THE REGION.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BECOME PREVALENT AT MOST SITES BY THE AFTERNOON
AS AFTERNOON HEATING BOOSTS DESTABILIZATION ...ALTHOUGH EARLIER
ARRIVAL AND MORE PERSISTENT MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AROUND
KECP. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT ALL BUT KECP THIS EVENING AS
THE WEAK LOW CENTER BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE FL PAHANDLE COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOIST/WET CONDITIONS THRU TONIGHT... WITH
CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS DIMINISHING IN WAKE OF CURRENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 91 77 92 76 94 / 70 50 60 20 40
PANAMA CITY 90 78 90 79 92 / 70 70 70 50 40
DOTHAN 90 76 92 75 94 / 70 50 60 20 40
ALBANY 91 77 93 76 94 / 70 40 50 20 40
VALDOSTA 91 76 93 74 93 / 70 40 50 20 50
CROSS CITY 92 77 93 74 94 / 40 40 40 20 50
APALACHICOLA 91 80 90 81 92 / 70 70 70 50 40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.


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