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Aug 14 Area Weather Discussion

By: NWSTallahassee
By: NWSTallahassee

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
900 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

...HUMID SULTRY AIRMASS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWER AND AMPLE THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
DURING SAT AFTN AND INTO EVE...SCT/NMRS SHWRS AND WDLY SCT-SCT
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BY 9 PM EDT...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED.

AT UPPER LEVELS...
THE LARGE SCALE CONUS PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED IN NRN STREAM
HIGHLIGHTED BY 559DM LOW OVER S/CNTRL CANADA WITH POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OVER NRN PLAINS...RIDGING OVER ERN STATES AND
A FULL AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS WRN ATLC. CONVERSELY...SRN STREAM
NOTED BY BROAD RIDGE FROM CA EWD TO JUST OFF ERN SEABOARD. UPPER LOW
NOTED OVER N/CNTRL GA (ASSOCD WITH REMNANTS OF TD 5) AND 595DM HIGH
OVER NE FL. IN BETWEEN...TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE STEAMING NEWD
FROM SFC-H5 AND ACROSS LOCAL REGION. THIS REFLECTED IN AREA 00Z
RAOBS...I.E. TAE WITH 2.41 INCH PWAT.

DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS...RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND
RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE GULF AS THE REMNANTS OF TD5 AND ASSOCD
FRONTAL TROUGH MEANDERS WWD FROM NE INTO CENTRAL GULF. THIS
RETROGRADING ALLOWS DEEPER MOISTURE FROM WRN ATLC TROUGH TO FILTER
IN.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
MAIN FEATURES ARE 1)LOW IN S/CNTRL CANADA WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWD TO IA AND THEN SSW THRU KS AND BEYOND...2) BACK DOOR FRONT OVER
ERN MOST GA SINKING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE REGION...3)SURFACE RIDGE
WITH AXIS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND 4)1012MB
LOW...REMNANTS OF TD5 LOCATED ACROSS SE ALA/SW GA BORDER.

WITH RETROGRADING RIDGE...BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG INTO
SERN GA ADVECTING HIGH PWATS ACROSS AREA ON SUNDAY. I.E. GFS VLD
MODEL SOUNDING WITH 2.6 INCHES PWAT AT 00Z SUN. ON MONDAY...
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ACRS NE FL AND SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
FILTERS IN ACROSS MAINLY NE TIER OF GA COUNTIES.

THE MAIN WX CONCERN WILL REMAIN THE IMPACT OF REMNANTS OF TD5. THE
MODELS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANT BEGINNING ITS
TRACK SOUTH AND ALONG THE ERN END OF RETROGRADING RIDGE...THUS BACK
TOWARD THE PANHANDLE COAST OVERNIGHT AND EMERGING INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WEST HUGGING GULF COAST TOWARD NEW
ORLEANS MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE ON TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE
LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER WATERS..STILL FORECAST TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ARE IN IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE AND UP TO AROUND 5 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE PANHANDLE
COASTAL AREAS. THUS LOCAL TO POSSIBLY LARGER SCALE FLOODING MUST BE
MONITORED.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY)...
EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO YIELD MUGGY OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FOCUS ACROSS WRN
1/3RD OF CWA. THIS WELL REFLECTED IN LCL WRF 4KM RUN. PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP LATE WITH FOCUS ACROSS SRN ALA/GA AS NOTED IN SREF
PROGS. WILL UPDATE ZFP TO LOWER POPS 10 PCT 00Z-06Z AND ADD PATCHY
FOG FOR GA/ALA ZONES 06Z-12Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS REMNANTS OF TD5 APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WEST TOWARD MOBILE AND NEW
ORLEANS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR...ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS AND BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. PATCHES OF FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. EXPECT A REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN ON SUNDAY.


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