Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
TODAY...DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
WEAK COASTAL CONVERGENCE TO SET THE STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT
LOW TOPPED SHOWERS THIS MORNING (MUCH LIKE THURSDAY) THROUGH A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THESE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND THEN SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THIS MORNING SHOULD
BE SMALL IN SIZE AND FAST MOVERS. THEREFORE...THE RAINFALL MAY BE
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO SIGNIFICANT TOTALS. AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
INCREASE (ESPECIALLY OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. GFS/NAM/EC ALL SHOW THE VORTICITY MAX TO OUR WEST
LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN AL THIS AFTERNOON/EVE.
SURFACE REFLECTION/TROUGH UNDERNEATH THIS ENERGY WILL BECOME A BIT
MORE DEFINED INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. MAX DIURNAL HEATING...ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL FOCUS NEAR THE TROUGH SHOULD FORCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER OUR W/NW ZONES. POPS THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM
AROUND 70% AT DOTHAN AND ALBANY.. TAPERING TO 50-60% FROM PANAMA
CITY TO TALLAHASSEE AND VALDOSTA...AND THEN 30-40% OVER THE SE BIG
BEND. EVEN THESE HIGH POPS OVER THE W/NW MAY BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE IF THE PATTERN DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED. HAVE UNDERCUT MAX TEMPS
(LOWER 90S) A FEW DEGREES FROM THE MAV NUMBERS DUE TO THE EXPECTED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER. EVEN STILL...THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 100 AND 105.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY...HOWEVER WILL KEEP LOW END
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH STILL
IN PLACE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ISOLATED
STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE HAS NOT SETTLED ON AN EXACT
SOLUTION FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF/GEM
HAVE COME TO A CLOSE ENOUGH COMPROMISE TO REALIZE THAT THIS IS
LIKELY NOT GOING TO BE THE BEST WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL FORCE THE VORTICITY MAX
OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA TO BEGIN DRIFTING BACK SOUTH. AS THIS FEATURE
AND ITS ACCOMPANIED SURFACE TROUGH/LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF ABOVE AVERAGE
RAINFALL CHANCES AND UNDERCUTTING MAV HIGH TEMPS. IN GENERAL HAVE
LEANED TOWARD A ECMWF/GEM BLEND BY SUNDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSITION
WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXTREME...EVEN THE ECMWF/GEM
SHOW SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW ALONG THE NE/NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION. IF HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS
WERE TO OCCUR...THE BEST CHANCE CURRENTLY WOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...AND ESPECIALLY THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE
IS STILL LOW ON THE DETAILS OF THIS POTENTIAL EVENT AND EVERYONE IS
URGED TO FOLLOW THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.


WTVY-TV 285 N Foster Street Dothan, AL 36303 334-792-3195
Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 100607794 - wtvy.com/a?a=100607794
Gray Television, Inc.