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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

ON SATURDAY...AS THE REMNANT LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND...SHOULD SEE
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHIFT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...CLOSER
TO THE LOW CENTER. THE FURTHER INFLUX OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A TIGHT GRADIENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THE H85/H7 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EVEN FURTHER WWD...
HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.

REGIONAL MODEL SOUNDING DATA INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN SATURATED
PROFILES THRU THE WEEKEND. FOR EXAMPLE DHN...TLH AND VLD ALL SHOW
PWATS AOB 2/1/4 INCHES THRU THE WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE MAX SHIFTING
EWD THRU SUN. (I.E. VLD WITH 2.27 INCH PWAT 18Z FRI INCREASING TO
2.34 AND 2.54 INCHES IN SAT/SUN 18Z RESPECTIVELY). EVEN SO...STORM
TOTAL AVERAGE QPF THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 72 HOURS IS AROUND 2 TO 3
INCHES IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH LESSER
VALUES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND. HOWEVER...THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THAT WIDESPREAD FLOODING CRITERIA WILL NOT BE REALIZED.


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