Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE MOVEMENT
OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF LOW/TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. DURING
THURS EVE...IT WAS CENTERED JUST NEAR NEW ORLEANS WITH H85/H70
TROF AXIS ORIENTED NE-SW FASHION FROM CENTRAL GA TO THIS LOW. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WELL DEFINED...EXPOSED CENTER IN THE
LOW CLOUD FIELD. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH NORTHWEST.
EAST OF THE LOW...SOME BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATING NORTHWARD OFF THE
GULF. STEERING CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER
WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
WESTWARD.

THE FORECAST OF THIS LOW HAS BEEN CLOSELY PATTERNED OFF THE LATEST
NAM AND EURO...WHICH GENERALLY FAVOR A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC LOOP OF
THE REMNANT SURFACE CENTER ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH THREE
DAYS. WHETHER THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ACTUALLY SURVIVES LONG ENOUGH
TO EMERGE BACK OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE WEEKEND IS IN
DOUBT. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THIS
LOW WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE EAST AND LINGER OVER THE SERN U.S.

SO..ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW FROM DEPRESSION #5 TO
REMAIN CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE MISS/AL BORDER. THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE SIMILAR IN COVERAGE TO THURSDAY...EXCEPT WITH THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHT NORTHWARD DRIFT TO THE CIRCULATION. SOME DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO GET PULLED NORTH LATE IN
THE DAY TO THE SE BIG BEND.


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