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Long Term Forecast

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
TRICKY FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE 00Z GFS MAINTAINING ITS
INSISTENCE THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 5 WILL EVENTUALLY DO A FULL
CLOCKWISE LOOP AND BE BACK NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY MONDAY AS
A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA. IN FACT...IF ONE FOLLOWS THE 500
MB VORTICITY ON THE 00Z GFS...THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. 16 DAYS LATER! WHILE OTHER MODELS LIKE THE CANADIAN AND EURO
HINT THAT A PIECE OF THE REMNANTS MAY LINGER AROUND...THEY ARE MUCH
WEAKER IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF WHATEVER IS
LEFT OVER...AND THE WEAKER DEPICTION IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME. EVEN
WITH THIS WEAKER DEPICTION...POPS DURING MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL (50 TO 60 PERCENT) EACH AFTERNOON
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.


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