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Short Term Forecast

By: NWS
By: NWS

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
TODAY...A DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING...MODEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW LEVEL COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE A DISTURBED WEATHER DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND THE REMNANTS OF TD #5 OVER SOUTHERN
LA/MS. INVERTED UPPER TROUGH CENTERED TO OUR WEST WILL PROVIDE THE
CYCLONIC UPPER SUPPORT..ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
COASTAL WATERS. AS WAS MENTIONED ABOVE...PW VALUES ARE ABOUT AS HIGH
AS WE EVER SEE. MID-LEVEL THETA-E VALUES ARE ALSO VERY IMPRESSIVE IN
THE 336-339K RANGE WHICH WILL CERTAINLY NOT SUPPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WOULD LIKE TO MAKE CLEAR THAT A WASHOUT OF A DAY IS NOT
FORECAST (AND A MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL NOT BE RAINING IN ANY ONE
PLACE). HOWEVER RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WITH
NUMEROUS ON AND OFF PASSING SHOWERS. ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL ZONES TO BEGIN TO DAY...AND THEN
LIKELY SPREAD INLAND ACROSS OUR FL ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN EXPAND INTO OUR
NORTHERN GA/AL ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE HIGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS...HOWEVER THE FLOW IS RATHER FAST AND HENCE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL ALSO MOVE QUICKLY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING DOWN. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND AROUND 90 AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 105 DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DEWPOINTS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. FOR THOSE WITH BEACH PLANS...ONSHORE FLOW AND
ROUGH SURF WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
FRANKLIN...GULF...BAY...AND WALTON COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...INLAND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FADE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNSET. HOWEVER...SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER VERY WARM
NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS BY SUNRISE ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH UPPER
TROUGHING TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST AND UPPER RIDGING TO OUR EAST.
PLENTY OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND MAINLY COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY IN THE MORNING...WILL SPREAD
INLAND QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR SHOULD BE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO AL/GA FOR
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR NW ZONES...ALTHOUGH ALREADY ON
THE HIGH SIDE (60-70%) MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UP WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO OUR WEST INCREASES. HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S AND MAX HEAT INDICES WILL BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES.


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