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Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER 5...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO BE MAJOR PLAYERS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE DEVIL IS DEFINITELY IN THE DETAILS...AS THE
PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM LENDS A HIGHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY TO
THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO SHOW THE SYSTEM
BASICALLY STALLING JUST INLAND AFTER MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AS PRESSURES RISE TO THE NORTH OF WHAT
REMAINS OF THE DEPRESSION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS THEN
APPEAR TO DRIFT THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND OUT OVER THE GULF AGAIN. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS OF THE
ULTIMATE TRACK...THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS WILL GO WITH ABOVE NORMAL POPS...AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL.


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