Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. THE LATEST FORECAST
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AND TAKES THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST BY EARLY
THURSDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE MAIN IMPACTS TO OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
BE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING WIND AND WAVES OFFSHORE
WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIP CURRENT RISK. RUNNING THE TCM WIND TOOL ON THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS ALL OF THE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

POPS HAVE A SOUTH TO NORTH GRADIENT WITH HIGHER CHANCES THE FARTHER
SOUTH ONE GOES CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE AREA. WE`RE CURRENTLY
FORECASTING LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TAPERING BACK TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT OVER SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. HEADING INTO FRIDAY...THE FORECAST
BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN WITH SEVERAL MODELS SLOWING DOWN THE
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION AFTER IT MOVES INLAND WEST OF
THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE FORECAST UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE SYSTEM WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS SINCE SLOW MOVING TROPICAL REMNANTS CAN PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.

ULTIMATELY...THE GREATEST IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM TO OUR FORECAST AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE INCREASED SURF AND RIP CURRENT RISK MAY OCCUR AFTER
IT MOVES ONSHORE IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINFALL IF THE SYSTEM DOES
INDEED MEANDER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.


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