Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THROUGH THU NIGHT...
THERE IS IMPRESSIVE CLUSTERING IN THE 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THIS
FEATURE CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES.
THESE MODELS SHOW LANDFALL ANYWHERE FROM SW LA TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MS RIVER...ALL IN SRN LA. OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS IS WEAKEST
AND FURTHEST W WITH THE TRACK AND IS NOT BEING ACCEPTED. THE EURO IS
ONLY SLIGHTLY RIGHT (E) OF THE CONSENSUS. THE NAM IS RIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE AND WAS ESSENTIALLY FAVORED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
FOR TONIGHT...WE ARE SHOWING CHANCE POPS FOR OUR FL ZONES TAPERING
QUICKLY TO SILENT 10 ACROSS THE N. ON WED...WE MAINTAIN A LARGE POP
GRADIENT S-N WITH LIKELY IN FL TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF
ZONES (N OF AN ABY TO TMA LINE). IT IS ON THIS DAY THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE SW OF OUR OFFSHORE
MARINE LEGS. A SIMILAR POP DISTRIBUTION WAS USED FOR THU. EVEN
THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE MAKING LANDFALL IN SRN LA ON THIS
DAY... PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PULLED NWD INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA. FOR TEMPS...WE GENERALLY FAVORED THE MET NUMBERS DUE
TO THE RECENTLY IDENTIFIED WARM BIAS IN THE GFS.

FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
ARE NORMAL TO DRIER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL OF AROUND 3 INCHES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS FORECAST
FOR THE FL PANHANDLE COAST...WITH 2 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE REST OF
OUR FL ZONES AND ONE INCH ACROSS OUR SE AL AND SRN GA ZONES.

ONE OF THE PRIMARY IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS
INCREASED SURF AND AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. SURF HEIGHTS
SHOULD GET UP TO 4 FT WITH HIGHER SET AT SAINT GEORGE ISLAND
TOMORROW. THIS WOULD LIKELY EQUATE TO A HIGH RISK FOR RIPS.


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